Will sub-4% mortgage rates disappear?

The recent spike in inflation has rattled the markets and we’re seeing swap rates edge up. Given these are the rates lenders use to price fixed mortgage deals that’s putting real pressure on the sub-4% mortgage deals we’ve seen creeping in over recent months. If this inflation trend continues, we will absolutely see some of those rates disappear, at least in the short-term.

However, we're not expecting a sharp reversal. Sub-4% mortgage rates might become less common, but they won’t vanish overnight. Some lenders still have room to compete, especially if the Bank of England sticks to a cautious, gradual approach on rate cuts.

We will likely see mortgage rates creep back over that 4% line in the coming days, as swap rates react to higher inflationary figures, food inflation, and improvements in world trade. Mortgage rates will eventually settle in the range of 3%-4% for the foreseeable future, so this increase is more psychological than anything else.

Given the recent uptick in inflation, it's likely we'll see rates creep back above 4%. This has rattled the market and seen swap rates slowly edge up as a result. The Bank of England is likely to back off on more cuts to the base rate anytime soon, so lenders will adjust their rates accordingly. This could just be a short-term blip, so lenders won't row back excessively, but the rates war we've seen recently will almost certainly fizzle out now.

Sub-4% rates are hanging by a thread. With inflation spiking again, the swap markets have already started to wobble, and lenders don’t hang about. We’ve seen some of the best deals quietly vanish overnight, and more could follow. If you’re sitting on the fence, now might be the time to jump. The window for locking in a 3-point-something deal could be closing fast.

Sub-4% mortgage rates aren't dead yet, but they're certainly feeling the heat from inflation's unwelcome return. The recent price surge has sent swap rates climbing, forcing lenders to retreat from their most competitive deals - though we're seeing a tactical withdrawal rather than full-scale panic.
While some of those eye-catching sub-4% products are disappearing faster than free samples at Costco, this feels more like a temporary cooling-off period than a permanent farewell. Most lenders still have wiggle room to compete, particularly if the Bank of England maintains its steady-as-she-goes approach to rate cuts. Expect rates to settle somewhere between 3-4% as the market finds its feet again.