Copy article

Where are house prices headed now?

ended 01. September 2023

After this morning's dire Nationwide data, the Daily Mail / Thisismoney want views from experts on where house prices are headed next. How much do you expect house prices to fall by and why? When might they start rising again, and why? Just a few lines will do. No need for an essay. Tight deadline.

7 responses from the Newspage community

Copy all

Copy

Editor
Craig Fish
Director at Lodestone Mortgages
House prices are going to continue to drop over the coming months, and on the basis that most data we see is historic, the data may suggest that prices are still falling even at the point that they begin to stagnate before rising again. 15 - 20% drops from peak to trough could be seen. Data is also currently suggesting that we may see none or one more increase in base rate before leveling off and potentially starting to drop back from March/ April next year. This may be when we see property prices stagnate before recovering towards the end of 2024.
Copy

Editor
Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
You could see a fall in house prices by up to 10% this year. The provisions in the Mortgage Charter will support the market at least until June 2024. Prices are unlikely to rise until there is either government support or a drop in rates followed by green shoots in the economy.
Copy

Editor
Stephen Perkins
Managing Director at Yellow Brick Mortgages
This morning’s data was a more drastic decline than expected, with the bruises and swelling starting to show from the repeated beating dished out by the Bank of England over the last 12 months. If i was the property market’s trainer, i’d throw in the towel and ask the referee to end the fight. With another planned rate rise in a few weeks, expect demand to continue to fall and houses prices with it. This is just the start of the slide, still a long way to reach the bottom.
Copy

Premium
Denni Tyson
Mortgage and Protection Advisor at Henchurch Lane Financial Services
House prices will certainly fall due to the banks holding firm on interest rates and causing homeowners and prospective buyers to remain cautious. Subject to the next inflation data, I think a house price fall of 20% is possible due to the sheer rise in interest rates since December 2021. In respect to when they may rise again, I think if interest rates are in the region of 4.5% plus, we could well see house prices remain stagnant with no such rise, due to the interest rates that are being marketed by lenders.
Copy

Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
With mortgage rates likely to remain above 5% for the next 6-12 months, it's quite possible we could see a peak-to-trough fall in house prices of over 20 percent. Adjusted for inflation, perhaps 30 percent, with the bottom hit sometime in 2025.
Copy

Ross McMillan
Owner/Mortgage Advisor at Blue Fish Mortgage Solutions
Many had predicted 10% nationwide drops by the end of this year and with this most recent data, it seems likely that may well be where we are heading in the near term.

There are - as always - huge discrepancies across regions and Scotland so far is seemingly holding up better than many other areas of the UK but clearly nowhere is immune and there could be some scary numbers coming for homeowners as we approach the year end.

With rates gradually reducing, however, and inflationary pressures hopefully receding, I would expect flat rather than falling house prices for the majority of next year and - given the dramatic shortage of housing stock in comparison to even significantly reduced buyer demand - prices may likely begin to rise again swiftly post any General Election in 2024.
Copy

Ashley Thomas
Director at Magni Finance
Long-term house prices will rise as they always have. In the short term, they may stay level, but I don't expect this to be for long. We are still seeing interest from people buying at the higher end of the market at £1m-£5m+, although demand is lower as you would expect with the current climate.