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Should the Chancellor go before the Budget?

ended 03. September 2025

Government yields are soaring, the bond vigilantes are circling, safe haven assets like gold and silver are skyrocketing, and fiscally hammered businesses are groaning and going bust. With an Autumn Budget looming, UK Plc is arguably in one of the most tenuous places since the Global Financial Crisis and many believe the Government is completely out of its depth. Two questions:

  • Should Reeves go before the Budget?
  • Would this kind of performance and leadership be tolerated in the private sector?

Views ASAP please.

7 responses from the Newspage community

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Reeves is the worst Chancellor since Denis Healey, steering the UK toward fiscal delinquency. Paradoxically, her departure would likely trigger something worse, guaranteeing a historic debt crisis. Changing the Chancellor now would undermine market confidence by signalling policy chaos. Markets punish uncertainty more than consistency, even when disagreeing with direction. UK markets suffered fresh turmoil yesterday—long-dated yields hit 1998 highs while the pound tumbled, mounting the pressure on Starmer. Though part of broader global patterns, UK fundamentals are facing especially intense scrutiny. The question isn't whether Reeves should go, but whether government can restore fiscal credibility fast enough to prevent a deeper crisis—far more damaging than leadership change.
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There is a reason I’m not a brain surgeon and that is because I am not suitably qualified. The fact our current Chancellor has lasted so long is already surprising especially with her CV revisions. However, going before the budget would be a big mistake when we are already in a very fragile position. Will she make the Downing Street Christmas party? That’s another question.
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Whilst the economy is clearly in trouble, not all of this can be laid at the door of the Chancellor. Let's be honest, the Conservatives were unceremoniously kicked out due to the mess they got us into. The problem is Labour aren't giving us much confidence that they know how to get us out of this mess. So, although Reeves is potentially on borrowed time, I don't think sacking her before the Budget would be helpful. However, this Budget is obviously her last chance to get things right.
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Reeves won’t be gone before the Budget. Firstly, that will cause even more instability and, secondly, Starmer doesn’t possess the ruthlessness that top CEO’s in the private sector possess to do it. Instead he has done a small reshuffle, which in my view is a precursor to a bigger reshuffle at Christmas in which his new minister without portfolio, Darren Jones, will slip into the Chancellor role.
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This is last chance saloon for Reeves, and the PM knows it. That's why he has surrounded himself with economic advisers, in case the markets turn against Reeves after the Budget. They have so far supported her as Chancellor, occasionally keeping her in check, but it is proving to be a tight rope between keeping the financial markets and the electorate happy, and I fear it's one she cannot win.
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Reeves has shown a lack of disclipine and poor judgement as Chancellor and so removing her must be tempting for the Prime Minister. The problem is, who would replace her? There are no obvious candidates and so maybe the best course of action is for Reeves to grow into the role with disclipined support from Number 10.
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If Reeves goes before the Budget, we get Torsten Bell who is, to put it mildly, a radical and insane. He now has his chum from Resolution, Dan Tomlinson, in as Chief Secretary to the Treasury, so the stars are aligning for a replacement for Reeves. Very telling given Darren Jones was shifted out this week, too, famously the man who said he couldn’t afford a Bloomberg News subscription proudly in Parliament, as if that were to be commendable. The bond yield situation isn’t being addressed properly. Yes, fiscal impacts are part of the story. But few are mentioning that the traditional demand for gilts has come from defined benefit schemes, which are now closed. As they buy less over the years, yields rise as the remaining investors might end up simply being foreign. A similar problem is currently happening with Dutch pensions, feeding through to yields, where pension funds are shifting from DB to DC on January 1st.