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Retail sales data June 23

ended 21. July 2023

The Office for National Statistics have just published the retail sales data for June and it came in stronger than forecast. Full report >> here << and key points below. Any thoughts about what this says about the economy and how it could impact the next base rate decision, send them across ASAP as this story is BREAKING.

  • Retail sales volumes are estimated to have risen by 0.7% in June 2023 with increases across all the main sectors (food, non-food and non-store retailing) except automotive fuel, following a rise of 0.1% in May 2023 (revised from an increase of 0.3%).
  • Looking at the quarterly picture, retail sales volumes rose by 0.4% in the three months to June 2023 compared with the three months to March 2023.
  • Non-food stores sales volumes rose by 1.0% in June 2023, following a fall of 0.5% in May 2023; department stores and furniture retailers reported that summer sales and increased footfall helped boost volumes.
  • Food stores sales volumes bounced back with 0.7% growth in June 2023, following a fall of 0.4% in May 2023, with feedback from some supermarkets that the good weather and promotions helped sales.
  • Non-store retailing sales volumes rose by 0.2% in June 2023, following a rise of 2.4% in May 2023.
  • Automotive fuel stores sales volumes fell by 0.3% in June 2023, following a rise of 1.7% in May 2023.

11 responses from the Newspage community

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Samuel Mather-Holgate
Independent Financial Adviser at Mather and Murray Financial
A year ago, prices of fuels and energy were near their peak after the start of the war in Ukraine. Although the devastating war continues, things feel less uncertain for UK households. This has translated into more confidence and higher retail sales, pretty much across the board. We are comparing to a period of ultra low confided though, so this shouldn’t be seen as a sign the economy is thriving.
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Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
While a boost in retail sales is beneficial for retailers and the overall economy, it doesn't support the case against the Bank of England raising interest rates for the 14th consecutive time. In simpler terms, if retail volumes remain high, the Bank of England might interpret this as an indication that consumers are not experiencing financial strain and are therefore not modifying their spending habits.
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Craig Fish
Director at Lodestone Mortgages
These results are no doubt great news for retailers, but not for the MPC. The better-than-expected inflation data gave some confidence to markets that rates may not reach such dizzy heights, however, I now fear that this confidence has taken a knock and its all bets off as to what this now means for interest rates. No doubt the MPC decision has just been made a whole lot easier and an increase of 0.5% is incoming at the next meeting.
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Justin Moy
Managing Director at EHF Mortgages
Given the Bank of England doesn't want us to spend any money, this doesn't make good reading. But increasing rates and high inflation actually improve the finances of savers and pensioners, so you have a significant proportion of the population actually with more money to spend through the Bank of England strategy of base rate increases. The increasing base rate just makes this worse.
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Wes Wilkes
CEO at IronMarket Wealth
Today retail sales data shows why it's so difficult to navigate policy when you're so much behind the 8 ball like the Bank of England having been so late with tackling inflation.
Just 2 days ago we were celebrating the slowing of inflation and this data seems contrary to that. However, we have 2 forces to consider, one of sentiment and one of real economies. A bout of good weather often sends us Brits nutty on shopping. It may indicate that the consumer isn't yer quite feeling the bite of rate policy enough which is concerning for the next Bank of England meeting, however, there is more data showing a slower economy that may be more relevant signals.
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Mark Grant
Business Finance Adviser at The Business Finance Branch
Increased sales - and just doing more business - is great news for any firm, but if the latest retail sales data points to an increase in discretionary (non-essential) spending then this could be a double-edged sword when it comes to the next interest rate decision. The Bank of England has already expressed concerns about record wage growth, and a key intent in raising interest rates is to reduce the amount of discretionary spending in the economy and reduce inflationary pressure. In a week where inflation data has finally fallen again and the markets have come off the recent highs in mortgage fixed rates, hope is that discretionary spending in these retail sales results is a secondary concern to interest rate-setters.
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Amit Patel
Adviser at Trinity Finance
The Bank of England will be split on whether to hike or pause an increase in the base rate at their next meeting, with the majority voting for an increase despite a drop in inflation. The cost of living crisis and high-interest rates has meant that consumers are not spending as much money as they would have in normal market conditions on big-ticket items. Consumers do also tend to spend more money during the summer months, crucially the data measures volume purchased rather than value.
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Russell Maggs
Mortgage & Protection Adviser at Maggs Financial Services
It amazes me that sales volumes have increased. The highest inflation rates in decades but large swathes of the nation are seemingly un-affected and have the capacity to handle increased costs. I fear the proverbial can being kicked down the road by many... Or have we coped with the price increases of the last 18 months better than expected?
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Paul Welch
Founder and CEO at Largemortgageloans.com
Today's news showed a surprise with June's retail sales growing by 0.7%. While this might sound positive, it actually complicates things when the government is hoping for people to spend less. This is in sharp contrast to the inflation numbers we saw this week. Even with these stronger sales, we're not out of the woods yet when it comes to the overall economic picture.

Many are predicting another Bank of England base rate increase soon. What we really need to watch out for is next month's core inflation. If it stays high, then it's likely mortgage rates won't be dropping any time soon.
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Peter Stamford
Mortgage Expert at Stamford Home Finance
Homeowners who were celebrating the fall in inflation earlier in the week could find themselves with their heads in their hands this morning as The Office for National Statistics business retail sales data for June came in stronger than had been forecast. Millions of people who are already at the brink, if not past the brink, of affordability will be worried that the Bank of England will see this as proof that spending needs to be curbed more. Is raising the interest rates again the solution though? I doubt it. All the wealth and spending driving these numbers is with the retirement-age middle classes. They don't have a mortgage and will continue buying new kitchens and ice creams for their dogs no matter what the monetary commision does
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Neezam Romjon
Co-Founder at Rebus Financial Services
I don't think we'll see much of a reaction from the Bank of England to Friday's retail sales figures. The Monetary Policy Committee will be laser-focused on the latest inflation figures and I am still expecting to see an increase of 0.25% to the base rate in August. That seems like a proportionate response.