Regional house prices - Halifax
In its HPI this morning - click here - the Halifax showed how prices are faring in Scotland, Wales and the UK regions. Any thoughts, whizz them across ASAP. Deadline is 09:30. We will be issuing to regional media.
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Many will see these figures as a surprise with a monthly increase of 1.1% by this data should be looks at in the round, and annual house price inflation is still slowing and down to just 2.1%. The underlying trend is that the saucepan has been taken off the stove and and soup is going cold. As interest rates creep up further this Spring and more data shows the economy is worse then people expect will lead to a further slump and annual house price inflation will turn negative in a couple of months.
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The comparison to January 2022 is really interesting, with purchase transactions over 10% down over that period, and purchase mortgage applications a whopping 46% lower than 12 months ago. When we get to those peak months around Easter, it will be interesting to see that same comparison, and see how activity has changed. Local markets are challenged in very different ways, more realistic pricing is finally filtering through, but those with flats may need to wait a bit longer to achieve a better price, or sell with more of a discount, which may affect those Accidental Landlords looking to offload properties in the current market. Many Landlords will be waiting for the budget to see if any further crippling measures will tip them over and encourage many to sell. The government need to be careful...
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The UK saw a drop in both home sales and mortgage approvals in January and that trend is likely to continue. Approvals are nearly half of what they were in January 2022. Properties are spending more time on the market, while supply remains limited across the country. We eagerly await the forthcoming Budget to see what, if any, measures are in store to reinvigorate the market. If only we could see the WhatsApp messages between the Chancellor, PM & the 15th housing minister since 2010.
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While house prices have continued to remain subdued over the past few months, there has been no better time in the last 15 years to acquire assets at an absolute bargain. For professional buyers and portfolio landlords, the competition from first time buyers has significantly reduced. There's more wheat, and less chaff of tyre kickers in the market now.
Everyone and their uncle was putting in offers last summer. That's now disappeared. So you are only dealing with serious buyers and the competition in the market is low.
Everyone and their uncle was putting in offers last summer. That's now disappeared. So you are only dealing with serious buyers and the competition in the market is low.
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What this news is telling us is that the Government and the Bank of England are managing to have their cake and eat it. In real terms prices are falling so the affordability is improving for first-time buyers, but in actual pricing, we are seeing little change which gives more confidence to the market and keeps home-owning voters happy.
So far this data seems to show we are managing the dinner party landlords out of the market, in a recessionary economy and with rising interest rates without having prices fall. How long can this continue?
So far this data seems to show we are managing the dinner party landlords out of the market, in a recessionary economy and with rising interest rates without having prices fall. How long can this continue?
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It is truly remarkable that despite the challenges we have faced the property prices for detached homes in Scotland remain strong. As predicted prices of flats are now beginning to fall due to new licensing requirements in the short-term lets market, I forsee this continuing as we approach the licence deadline in October this year. I would anticipate the long-term rental costs to be driven down as a direct result of a significant increase in available flats, especially across the City of Edinburgh.