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Property transactions HMRC November 23

ended 30. November 2023

At 09:30 this morning, HMRC is publishing the latest property transactions data, which always gets picked up in the media. A few quick Qs ahead of this.

  • The data is likely to show relatively muted transaction levels as it relates to completed sales that started in the spring or early summer, but are lower mortgage rates now starting to ignite demand and stimulate the property market?
  • How has Q4 been overall in terms of property transactions? Yesterday, for example, the Bank of England said mortgage approvals for house purchase rose in October.
  • 2023 versus 2024. Give us a quick and snappy summary of how 2023 has been in the property market and how you're expecting it to perform in 2024 (and why)..

7 responses from the Newspage community

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Stephen Perkins
Managing Director at Yellow Brick Mortgages
This data needs to be taken with a pinch of salt as it reflects the period when monthly base rate increases really started to challenge the housing market. Completions on the whole are currently taking a lot longer so this data may still reflect the fallout from the mini-Budget. Also, with backlogs at the Land Registry, it would be interesting to know if these are delaying these figures based on stamp duty returns. With lenders now heatedly competing for market share we are certainly seeing an uplift of enquiries from purchasers and so the data should be far stronger next year.
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Steven Hargreaves
Mortgage and Protection Adviser at The Mortgage Co
The rollercoaster that was 2023 is coming to an end. The first six months of the year were definitely slower than the same period in 2022 due to the Liz Truss mini-Budget hangover. Property prices had levelled off but recovered as interest rates month on month reduced. We then had the interest rate spike in mid-June, which sent interest rates sky high. We expected this would result in a dramatic slow down in sales, which we expect will be the news today. It's important to note there is a lag in these figures and that they not tell us what is happening today. The interest rate war that has been raging for the past couple of months is having the desired effect. As fixed mortgage rates fall, mortgage enquiries are increasing. The property market came to life in November, which bodes well for 2024.
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Wes Wilkes
CEO at IronMarket Wealth
In transactional terms, the property market overall has been very subdued in 2023. With 1.5 million consumers coming off fixed rates in 2024, the first half of next year could see this trend continue despite the fact mortgage rates have been edging down as people recalibrate to the new rate environment they find themselves in. The consensus now is that we are past the peak of rate rises but the full effects of those rises have yet to filter through. Looking at affordability overall, you suspect house prices are still a little overvalued so could fall further over the next 12 to 18 months but nothing like in the financial crisis of 2008.
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Craig Fish
Director at Lodestone Mortgages
The year started on a low, gained momentum, and then the brakes were slammed on as lenders simply didn't want to lend. It's therefore of no surprise that this data is showing a slowdown, as it now starts to cover the period of the year that was most affected. Thankfully, things are now improving, and slowly reducing mortgage rates have set in motion a thaw that isn't normally seen until early spring. If things continue as they currently are, with more positive economic data, and a General Election on the horizon, I strongly expect that 2024 will surpass this year. That said you just never know what is around the corner, and with the UK economy being so fragile, you have to expect the unexpected.
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Darryl Dhoffer
Founder at The Mortgage Geezer
The property market, throughout much of 2023, has been very quiet. Apart from October where mortgage approvals showed an increase as the impact of rate cuts rippled through, previous months have been largely subdued. 2023, in many respects, has been a year of readjustment to higher interest rates and this has limited activity levels. As a summary 2023 has been largely muted compared to previous years, and I expect 2024 to remain subdued, with transactions similar to or slightly lower than in 2023, due to the ongoing cost of living crisis and many households coming off mortgage rates secured before the mini-Budget. The cost of money these days is causing many people to sit tight.
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Ken James
Director at Contractor Mortgage Services
The debacle that was the Liz Truss administration muted the property market throughout much of 2023, but we have seen a marked improvement in the last quarter of the year. Mortgage rates constantly creeping down and the base rate not increasing are boosting confidence. However, the market remains on thin ice. Cracks in the economy could appear at any time and the ground could rapidly shift beneath our feet. There will be a lot of pent-up demand that has the potential to drive transaction levels in 2024 but in this day and age sentiment can turn very quickly.
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Malcolm Davidson
Director at UK Moneyman
Many commentators are predicting 2024 to be fairly similar to 2023, a world dominated by mortgage product switches and a flat purchase market. Whilst this might not sound too exciting, perhaps we can't have it all ways. After all, what most business owners crave in order to be able to plan effectively is a stable market. With mortgage rates looking like they will level out between 4% and 5% and Zoopla saying property values will flatline again, maybe we will get exactly what we wished for. In terms of mortgage brokers, it's vital to keep a careful eye on running costs. Product transfers are a squeeze on margin and it would be a shame to see good advisers forced to exit the industry. Time to sharpen up those business skills.