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Nationwide September House Price Index

ended 01. October 2023

Tomorrow morning at 07:00, the Nationwide is publishing its September house price index, which always gets widely picked up by the local, national and trade media. Ahead of this, a few Qs:

  • How was the property market in your experience during September? Quieter than a normal September, or perhaps showing more signs of life post-Bank of England rate pause?
  • Have lower mortgage rates started to stimulate the residential property market or is the higher cost of borrowing generally still putting people off from buying?
  • Do you expect a glut of properties to hit the market during Q4 and Q1 2024 as people needing to remortgage off ultra-low fixed rates decide to sell up?
  • Are any sectors particularly quiet (amateur landlords?) or particularly active (FTBs, portfolio landlords, etc)?
  • What do you expect to happen during Q4? More caution among consumers and a quiet market or greater activity if the Bank of England holds rates again?

Any other thoughts, whizz them across. We may issue a separate alert tomorrow AM subject to what emerges in the data.

7 responses from the Newspage community

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Riz MalikVerified
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
As much as it pains me to say this, the market is as good as done for 2023 and will limp into 2024. Even if the Conservatives announce new stimulus measures at its conference this week, that will have little impact on completions or house prices this year as sentiment has been hit for six. There's wasn't much confidence among buyers despite the fact that mortgage rates consistently edged down during September. Amind all the uncertainty, people are sitting on their hands.
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Simon BridglandVerified
Director at Charwin Private Clients
The first three weeks in September were simply awful for business. Paralysis defined the market, as everyone, from the markets to the consumer, waited for the outcome of the inflation data and Bank of England base rate decision. The hold in the base rate and the reduction in inflation quickly saw activity levels start to pick up. Now is a window of opportunity and I expect the fall in property prices to level off by the new year. If the next set of inflation data shows a similar trend and the base rate is once again held, happy days. If inflation rises and rates are hiked further, come January I can see estate agents' windows filling up and the number of active buyers drying up. This will especially be the case for amateur landlords who are under pressure from lenders' stress testing.
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Jamie AlexanderVerified
Mortgage Director at Alexander Southwell Mortgages
The final days of August and the initial three weeks of September were challenging to say the least. It was like the entire residential property market was apprehensively waiting for the inflation data and base rate decision, and when the outcome was positive, sentiment and activity levels soon started to pick up.
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Graham CoxVerified
Director at Bridging Hub
While September saw an increase in activity, compared to the traditionally quiet August, demand for property purchases remains week. There are two reasons for this: first, mortgage rates, despite falling over the past month, are still high at well over 5% for most people. Second, there seems to be widespread acceptance now that house prices are falling, and the rate of decline is accelerating. This is causing many buyers to put things and hold and wait for house prices to become even more competitive. With both mortgage rates and house prices expected to be lower this time next year, the property market is in limbo.
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Jamie LennoxVerified
Director at Dimora Mortgages
The property market in September was more subdued than usual. The pause in the Bank of England's rate adjustments has left both buyers and sellers in a state of anticipation. Despite falling mortgage rates, the higher cost of borrowing overall continues to deter would-be buyers, putting downward pressure on activity levels. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2024, we're likely to see a growing number of properties come onto the market. Homeowners who are still on ultra-low fixed rates might opt to sell as they face remortgaging at potentially much higher rates, which will really hit household finances. This could lead to increased supply in the property market, squeezing prices even harder.
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Ross McMillanVerified
Owner/Mortgage Advisor at Blue Fish Mortgage Solutions
Steady would be the best description of activity in the Scottish housing market during September. As the leaves have begun to fall, sellers have reluctantly started to understand that asking prices need to fall, too. First-time buyers purchasing in the sub-£250,000 bracket are one of the few areas to remain active. Falling asking prices, mortgage rate reductions, lender incentives and ever-increasing rents are incentivising many first-time buyers to make their move. The middle market continues to be extremely sluggish, however. As for landlords, with further Scottish Government rent control proposals announced recently, you are more likely to spot the Loch Ness monster than a mortgage-funded landlord purchase in Scotland these days.
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Adam Smith0
Founder at Alfa Mortgages
In our experience, the property market in September was even quieter than in August. This was particularly the case within the embattled buy-to-let sector. The realisation of the new cost of borrowing is really now starting to dawn on buyers and many haven't adjusted to the new norm yet. Towards the end of September, there was a little more momentum but people remain cautious.