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Nationwide March HPI 23

ended 30. March 2023

On Friday morning at 07:00, the Nationwide is publishing its March House Price Index. If you'd like the chance to see your views in the local, national and trade media, please answer any or all of the following Qs:

  • What were the main themes in the UK residential property market in March?
  • What has demand been like this month — and supply? 
  • What impact, if any, did the Bank of England rate rise and stubborn inflation print have on demand?  
  • House prices have come down since the mini-Budget - but do you think there is further to go or are prices likely to stabilise given the lack of supply and continued strength of the jobs market?
  • What level of demand is there for UK property from overseas investors? Any countries particularly active? If so, why?
  • Have people adjusted to higher borrowing rates and the fact they're unlikely to ever be as low again (short of another economic Black Swan)?

Any other thoughts or insights, jot them down. If you're a Premium user, your response will be edited by an experienced news journalist.

8 responses from the Newspage community

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Nick Harris
Co-founder at Quarters
Interestingly, our local market appears to be shifting in favour of the seller again. Buyers are coming out of their winter — and post-mini Budget — hibernation, confidence is returning and multiple offers are being received on a number of newly launched properties. Supply and demand are balanced for the first time in a long time but with many owners wishing to make the most of the spring market, and typical pre-pandemic seasonality returning, we’re expecting to see a jump in the number of available properties. Last week's base rate rise appears to have had little impact, with mortgage rates continuing to trickle down and those buyers with compelling reasons to move still actively viewing. Locally, asking prices have reduced by circa 5% and appear to have settled at that level. Given the recent surge in buyer activity, it’s unlikely we'll see further reductions unless there is another interest rate increase that is not already priced into the mortgage market.
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Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
The market appears to be in a perplexing limbo, almost as if it is waiting for an epiphany. Many will have a moment of clarity after the Easter break, allowing them to chart their future course in this unpredictable landscape. A dash of optimism in the form of falling inflation or a promising interest rate outlook could be the spark that ignites the market. As for 2023, I haven't given up hope on it yet. It could still surprise us all.
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Kundan Bhaduri
Property Developer and Portfolio Landlord at The Kushman Group
Towards the end of this year, both inflation and interest rates will have come down, and inflation significantly so. This will serve the property market well and support dermand as sentiment improves and the cost of borrowing comes down. Many sellers have definitely been nervous about selling in 2023 to date, while landlords, for a multiplicity of reasons, are nervous about buying or are even exiting the market. However, market sentiment is far from depressed. The cost of UK property is still higher than at the start of 2022 and more than 11% more than the start of 2021. For most home buyers, the best time of year to look at buying a home is in the Spring. As a professional buyer, my advice would be to start looking for your next house now, as the process of buying a house can take anywhere between three to six months and often buyers want to wrap everything up and be in their new home by Christmas.
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Gary Bush
Financial Adviser at MortgageShop.com
The UK property market saw reasonable levels of activity during March, despite everything going on around it. The main theme, as ever, is the lack of decent properties coming onto the market, which is supporting prices. The Bank of England's 0.25% increased base rate following the higher-than-expected inflation figure for February hasn't had any negative effect on mortgage rates. In fact, for a number of High Street lenders the opposite has proven true, with some fixed rates decreasing. Members of the public are generally expecting fixed rates to fall before the end of the year, as inflation comes back down to reasonable levels. The expectancy is that a period of stability is long overdue for the UK. Brexit, the pandemic and most recently the cost of living crisis have presented no end of challenges for the UK property market but it's still standing.
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Daniel Field
Managing Director at The Mortgage Dog
While higher interest rates have certainly put the property market under pressure, on the whole committed buyers have shown real resilience and have continued pursuing their house purchases even in the face of changing market conditions. The pace at which mortgage rates rose following the mini-Budget definitely caused some real concern among borrowers, but since the New Year mortgage rates have been steadily coming down and people have adjusted to the new normal. And that normal is no longer two-year fixes of circa 1%-2%. With proper financial planning, many homeowners and prospective buyers are still managing to successfully navigate the higher borrowing rates we have today and are still achieving their property goals. The collapse in demand and astronomical house price drops some predicted simply haven't materialised.
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Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
Despite the usual vested interests talking the market up and pretending there's 'nothing to see here', the fact remains mortgage approvals were down by nearly 50% in both December 2022 and January 2023 compared to the corresponding months a year earlier. That's a seismic shift in market sentiment. In fact, it's not even sentiment, it's just plain mathematics. The numbers simply don't add up for borrowers at the moment. We can have astronomically high house prices and crazily low interest rates, or much lower house prices and normal interest rates. We can't have both. That's why I believe house prices have much further to fall, probably another 20% or so.
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Austyn Johnson
Founder at Mortgages For Actors
The doom-mongers have been proved wrong. Demand for property and mortgages has been really strong in the first quarter of the year and we have not slowed down. If there's one trend I'm definitely beginning to see, it's a bit more debt consolidation. It's not always the best choice, but if it helps the client out, it's worth it. We're seeing a few smaller mortgages, too, as the asset-rich start to upgrade. I can only guess this is a hangover from their companies having a particularly good 21-22.
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Connor Harris
Co-Founder at Marco Harris
The housing market is currently buoyant enough to see sales being agreed, but there is a correction in prices due to various factors. The recent BOE base rate increase, high mortgage rates, and lower affordability and confidence levels among buyers are contributing to this trend. While the supply of homes on the market remains steady, marketing and strategy are essential in achieving a sale at or near the asking price. With the current correction in prices, it's crucial to highlight the unique selling points of the property and reach out to potential buyers who are willing to pay a fair price. Employing effective marketing techniques, such as staging the home, professional photography, and targeted advertising, can make all the difference in attracting the right buyer and achieving a successful sale.