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Mortgage rate hikes see sub-5% fixes vanish as average five-year fixed hits 6%

ended 08. October 2026

The number of sub-5% fixed mortgage deals has plummeted during September, while the average five-year fixed rate has now hit 6%, according to Moneyfactscompare.co.uk analysis.

The number of sub-5% fixed mortgage deals has plunged by 99%, from 1,494 since the start of September 2026 to just nine today. This figure excludes deals that are exclusive to Northern Ireland lending only.

In contrast, the number of sub-5% variable rate mortgages has remained broadly stable, falling from 411 at the start of September to 389 today. This figure excludes deals that are exclusive to Northern Ireland lending only.

Including products available to borrowers in Northern Ireland only, there are 107 fixed rate mortgage deals priced below 5%, compared with 1,691 at the start of September 2026, a fall of over 1,500 deals. On the same basis, the number of sub-5% variable rate mortgages fell from 421 to 395. This is a combined total loss of 1,610 mortgage options across the mortgage market.

Average fixed mortgage rates have their highest levels in three-years. The average two-year fixed rate has risen to 5.98%, its highest point since mid-December 2023, while the average five-year fixed rate has increased to 6.00%, its highest point since late September 2023. These average rates have not been above 6% for around three years.

Questions asked of experts: 

1. With the average five-year fixed rate now around 6%, how likely is it that mortgage rates will fall again over the next 12–24 months, and what would need to happen for that to occur?

2. Given the sharp disappearance of sub-5% fixed-rate deals, should borrowers who need to remortgage soon lock in a rate now, or is there a case for waiting—and what factors should determine that decision?

3. What does that tell us about where mortgage rates could go next?

10 responses from the Newspage community

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Tracey DixonVerified
Buy-to-Let Mortgage Specialist & Owner at Pure Mortgage and Protection
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Your mortgage is too important to gamble on a rate forecast.

Rates could fall over the next 12–24 months if inflation eases and wholesale funding costs decline, but borrowers should not rely on that happening. Fixed rates reflect future expectations, so they can move before the Bank of England acts.

For anyone remortgaging soon, securing a suitable deal early can protect against further rises. If rates fall before completion, switching to a cheaper product may be possible, subject to lender rules and fees.

The decision should reflect affordability, equity, future plans and the need for certainty. Waiting carries risks, particularly if it means moving onto an expensive standard variable rate.

The disappearance of cheaper fixes signals uncertainty, rather than proving another rise is inevitable. Choose a mortgage you can afford even if hoped-for cuts never arrive.
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Stephen PerkinsVerified
Norwich Mortgage Broker and Managing Director at Yellow Brick Mortgages
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The disappearance of almost every sub-5% fixed deal tells us a lot about lenders’ funding costs today, but very little with certainty about where mortgage rates will be in 12 or 24 months. For fixed rates to fall meaningfully again, markets need greater confidence that inflation and Bank Rate are heading lower, allowing swap rates and lenders’ own funding costs to ease.

For borrowers approaching the end of a fixed deal, waiting and hoping is rarely necessary. It is often possible to secure a new rate months in advance and then review it again before completion if pricing improves. That gives borrowers a fallback without trying to predict the market. Rates may well be lower a year from now, but somebody remortgaging in the next few months has to deal with the market they have today, not the one they hope might arrive.
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Justin MoyVerified
Managing Director at EHF Mortgages
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I think this average mortgage rate is totally misleading and doesn't reflect the rates the vast majority of borrowers will pay. Its unecessarily scaring borrowers and property buyers away from the property market, when most rates are still nearer 5% than 6%, even at 95% LTV. Borrowers should speak to their mortgage broker immediately to be reassured of their current position, and definitely work at least 6 months ahead of any renewal date to secure a new deal ready for 2027.
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Jack TuttonVerified
Director at SJ Mortgages
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The mortgage market has taken a significant turn over the past month, with rates becoming increasingly expensive as the situation in the Middle East continues to develop. Financial markets are now concerned that we could see further Base Rate increases than previously anticipated. This has pushed up the financial markets that lenders use to price their mortgage products, which has resulted in the increases we are seeing today. As we have been advising clients for some time, it is important to review your mortgage as early as possible. There is no guarantee that rates will fall, and delaying a decision could leave borrowers exposed to further increases. The good news is that the vast majority of lenders will allow a mortgage rate to be amended if rates improve between securing a product and the mortgage coming into effect. This means that securing a rate early can provide some protection while still allowing borrowers to benefit if market conditions improve
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Craig FishVerified
Director at Lodestone Mortgages
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Losing 99% of sub-5% fixed deals in a single month is brutal, but borrowers shouldn't panic over a 6% headline. Averages lump the cleanest cases in with the most complex, and plenty of well-prepared borrowers are still securing rates comfortably below that. Rates can come down again over the next 12 to 24 months, but only if inflation falls back convincingly, swap rates settle and the Bank of England stops eyeing rate rises. Even then, relief will be gradual. The days of cheap money are long gone, and anyone waiting for sub-4% fixes to return is gambling with their mortgage. If you're remortgaging within six months, secure a rate now. Many lenders let you lock in that far ahead, and a good broker will keep checking and switch you if pricing improves before completion. Waiting only makes sense if you can comfortably absorb today's payments. And the fact that variable deals barely moved while fixes vanished tells you lenders expect borrowing costs to stay higher for some time.
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Tony SanchezVerified
Founder at Bridging Loan Directory
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The question isn’t only what the next mortgage will cost, but whether it will provide enough money to repay the existing borrowing.

In Bridging Loan Directory’s recent reporting, brokers and lenders have highlighted how the mortgage available after full underwriting can fall short of the amount expected when a bridging loan was arranged. Rental coverage, affordability and the property valuation can all affect the outcome.

That matters when someone is relying on a mortgage to repay a short-term loan by a fixed deadline. A shortfall may mean finding extra cash, extending the borrowing or selling the property.

Nobody can promise where rates will be in 12 months. Our reporting highlights a more immediate question: does the repayment plan still work on the borrowing available now?
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Samuel Mather-HolgateVerified
Managing Director & IFA at Mather and Murray Financial
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The direction of travel is now the story. A brief fall in gilt yields does not change the bigger picture: mortgage pricing is being pulled higher again by inflation fears, geopolitical risk and nervous bond markets. If five-year fixes are averaging around 6%, the housing market is not just cooling; it is being squeezed. Sub-5% deals disappearing is a warning flare for borrowers and sellers alike. Rates could fall over the next 12 to 24 months, but only if inflation keeps easing, the Bank of England can cut, and global markets stop demanding a higher price for risk. That is a lot to go right. Borrowers close to remortgaging should not gamble on perfect timing. Secure a rate, keep reviewing, and switch if better deals appear before completion. A slowing property market can absorb higher rates for a while, but not forever. If funding costs keep rising, forced sales, lower valuations and broken chains become the next phase.
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Richard DavidsonVerified
Mortgage Advisor at onlinemortgageadvisor.co.uk
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1. Rates can fall again, and sooner than people think, but inflation needs to be under control first. Fixed rates are priced on the anticipation of a rate rise, but they also carry a volatility premium, and we have been here before. Higher rates cool the economy naturally, which often means the Bank of England doesn't have to raise them at all. It's something of an expectations game.

2. For anyone remortgaging in the next six months, I'd secure a rate now, but don't assume a five-year fix is the only safe choice. Trackers make sense because of the instant saving, and while they carry an element of risk, it can be a calculated one. Most don't tie you in, so they can be changed if things start to look different.

3. The picture right now is uncertain, and any medium to long-term prediction is likely to be a fool's errand, but I think it's more likely than not that rates start to ease as we go into the new year.
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Steven GreenallVerified
Mortgage and Protection Advisor at Protect & Lend
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There is now a big disconnect between the Bank of England Base Rate and mortgage rates driven by Gilt prices having a knock on effect on swap rates used to price mortgages. Levels of global government debt is a huge concern and with no end in sight to the pressure in the bond markets we are not likely to see an easing in mortgage rates any time soon I fear.
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Jamie AlexanderVerified
Mortgage Director at Alexander Southwell Mortgages
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A 99% drop in sub-5% fixed deals in a single month is a stark number. Nearly 1,500 available at the start of September, nine today. That tells you everything about how quickly the market has shifted.

Average five-year fixes hitting 6% for the first time in three years will sting for anyone coming off a deal taken in 2021 or 2022. The payment shock is real.

Could rates fall over the next 12 to 24 months? Probably, but not quickly and not in a straight line. You need inflation back under control, swap rates to ease and the Bank of England confident enough to cut. None of that is guaranteed right now.

For anyone due to remortgage soon, waiting is a gamble I would not take. Lock in now. If rates improve before completion most lenders will let you switch. Sitting on a reversion rate hoping for something better is the worst of all positions to be in.