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Mortgage approvals March 23

ended 04. May 2023

On Thursday morning at 09:30, the Bank of England is publishing its latest mortgage approvals data. As ever, the media will be all over it like a rash. Few Qs for you ahead of this…

  • After the omnishambolic mini-Budget, were mortgage approvals higher than you thought in Q1? 
  • How was mortgage activity for you in April (whether you're a broker, lender or conveyancer)? Busy, quiet, so so?
  • House prices, according to the Nationwide this morning, rose by 0.5% in April. And though Bank Rate will almost certainly be hiked again this month due to inflation, are buyers more active (as mortgage rates are a lot lower than anticipated and people feel the economy isn't going to collapse after all)?
  • What do you expect will happen to mortgage approval numbers in Q2?
  • Optional Q: What did Wittgenstein mean when he said ‘The limits of my language mean the limits of my world’?

If you answer the last question, I'll delete it from your response as it's frankly irrelevant but will pin your comment to the top. 

9 responses from the Newspage community

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After last September's mini-Budget, mortgage approvals dropped off a cliff. But in the first quarter of 2023, confidence has steadily returned as mortgage rates have come down and the economic outlook feels less bleak. The significant increase in mortgage approvals for house purchase in March reflects the improved sentiment on the ground and the fact that people have accepted the new rate environment and are getting on with their lives. All in all, the UK economy is not looking as bad as the market predicted towards the end of 2022 and that sentiment is feeding through into mortgage approvals. Even another increase in the bank base rate this month may not slow the rise in mortgage approvals in the months ahead.
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In March and April, we've seen mortgage approvals bounce back fairly strongly despite base rate increases and stubbornly high inflation. Mortgage approvals are certainly not as high as a year ago when rates were still ultra-low but they are now at, or around, their pre-pandemic level. The reason for this is that buyers have now adjusted to the slightly higher interest rate world. We're also seeing a good number of clients engaging early when their deal ends too. The new mortgage rate environment has made borrowers a lot more proactive.
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The one word I would use to describe the current housing market is frustrating. It continues to inch forward, seemingly awaiting intervention to relieve its current state of stagnation. The market craves confidence and stability, both of which are currently lacking. Unless there is an external stimulus or a change in the outlook for interest rates, mortgage approvals will remain uninspiring for the forseeable.
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The UK housing market is on the move again, with house prices rising by 0.5% in April, according to the Nationwide. Now that the fallout from the mini-Budget has largely subsided, and people sense the economy may hold up better than originally thought, buyers are once again emerging and eyeing up potential properties. I spoke to a first-time buyer recently who had been holding off on buying a home, waiting for the right time. With mortgage rates lower than expected and a growing sense of confidence in the economy, they finally took the plunge and bought their dream home. It's a reminder that, while there are certainly challenges ahead, the housing market can still offer opportunities for those willing to take the leap.
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In the first quarter mortgage approvals were far higher than we expected at the tail end of last year following the mini-Budget. We thought it would be active but totally underestimated how active. March was busy but April saw activity that made us creak at the seams. Buyers have factored in all the doom and gloom rate news and a lot have quite frankly put off buying a property or a home improvement decision for long enough and are now out in force. This may explain the latest Nationwide growth figure in April, of 0.5%. We expect the second quarter of the year to continue to show some impressive activity regardless of the 11th May Bank of England rate decision.
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After February saw the first increase in mortgage approvals in six months, a further rise in March is likely. We certainly saw a noticeable improvement in buyer interest. The traditional peak buying period in Spring and Summer should see approvals rise steadily but are likely to remain 20%-30% below where they were in the same period last year. And with more base rate hikes expected, demand is likely to remain weak for the foreseeable.
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Another month of a steady housing market. Costs are a concern for many but you can't escape the reality that people need homes to live in so I'd expect to see modest house price growth for the rest of the year albeit constrained slightly by the cost of paying for them.
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We have seen a huge increase in enquiries over the past couple of months with more and more people looking to move ahead with purchases. The property market seems to be much more positive as mortgage rates have continued to reduce over the past couple of months.
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As lenders gain confidence in stability, they will be able to accept more applications. However, the usual affordability and credit checks will need to be followed if they are to make it to offer/completion. Check, check and check again to avoid declines.