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"The Chancellor needs to be the next one to lose a job"

ended 17. July 2025

BLEAK is one word that could be used to describe the latest jobs data published this morning. For example, the early estimate of payrolled employees for June 2025 fell by 178,000 (0.6%) on the year, and by 41,000 (0.1%) on the month, to 30.3 million. Meanwhile, the UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over was estimated at 4.7% in March to May 2025. This is above estimates of a year ago, and up in the latest quarter. Additionally, the estimated number of vacancies in the UK fell by 56,000 on the quarter, to 727,000, in April to June 2025. This is the 36th consecutive period where vacancy numbers have dropped compared with the previous three months, with vacancies decreasing in 14 of the 18 industry sectors. The UK Claimant Count for June 2025 increased on the month and the year, to 1.743 million. Lastly, on the earnings front, in March to May 2025, annual growth in employees' average earnings in Great Britain for both regular earnings (excluding bonuses) and total earnings (including bonuses) was 5.0%.

Newspage asked businesses in all sectors for their thoughts on the data, below.

9 responses from the Newspage community

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Rohit Kohli
Director at The Mortgage Stop
These numbers are bleak, yes, but they’re not surprising. Since coming to power, this government has drained business confidence and piled on costs. There’s been zero incentive to invest, and right now most firms are focused on protecting themselves from poor policymaking rather than planning for growth. Labour talks about being pro-growth, but it’s hard to see what their definition of growth actually is. At the moment, the whole Labour Government seems totally detached from business reality. If there’s nothing in the next Budget to genuinely support investment and productivity, I don’t see Rachel Reeves lasting beyond Christmas.
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Stephen Perkins
Managing Director at Yellow Brick Mortgages
The tax on jobs unveiled at the last Budget continues to bite, with another 41,000 lost jobs and an even larger drop in vacancies. How can the economy be expected to grow with eight consecutive months of increased unemployment since the Budget? The Chancellor needs to be the next one to lose a job.
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Jon Crocker
Founder at ICENI Mastermind Group Ltd
AI isn’t the only reason for this rise in unemployment data but it's the accelerant being sprayed on the flames. Entry-level roles are vanishing, routine admin, customer service and content writing are being replaced and vacancies are stalling as businesses test what AI can do cheaper. Young people, those in mobility coldspots and anyone without basic AI skills are being rapidly left behind and we will soon have a new societal split between those who can use AI and those that can’t. People’s personal views on the merits and dangers of AI are largely irrelevant because it’s going to happen to you anyway so you can work with it as an opportunity or see it as a threat and become irrelevant.
We must make these skills accessible or it will be the usual case of the disadvantaged being left behind again. We don’t need a 10-year plan but immediate action because the pace of change will catch people out and those employment figures are going to look darker by the day.
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Sam Kirk
Managing Director at J-Flex Rubber Products
Another month, another drop in employment. That’s eight in a row under Labour. How many more warnings do we need before people start asking serious questions about Labours’ economic credibility? They talked big on “growth” and “jobs,” but all we’ve seen is stagnation dressed up in soundbites. Frankly, the only thing more worrying than Reeves’ performance is the lack of anyone remotely competent waiting in the wings.
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Simon Royston
Managing Director at The Recruitment Lab
Organisations are seeing total staff payroll costs increase 20%-25% a year due to the living wage increases. When employees on the bottom of the ladder have a pay bump, so does everyone above as you try and differentiate disciplines and seniority within the organisation. Simply put, the average business simply can't cope with the numbers and so they are reducing headcount. It doesn't have to be as dramatic as redunduncies: they simply stop replacing anyone that leaves, and spread the duties among the existing team. The living wage has become a political football - a bit like the NHS - where the governement boasts how much they have increased it by. It is now damaging the economy.
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Ranald Mitchell
Director at bad credit mortgage specialists Charwin Mortgages
Bleak doesn’t begin to cover it. We’re seeing falling payroll numbers, rising unemployment, collapsing vacancies, and a growing claimant count and yet some still talk about a resilient economy. This is the eighth straight month of payroll shrinkage, on the back of many consecutive periods of falling vacancies. That’s not a blip, it’s a trend. What’s most alarming is that these numbers are landing just weeks into a new government supposedly focused on growth. Businesses are being suffocated by costs, red tape, and uncertainty, while the public are told to keep calm and carry on. At what point do we admit that UK plc is being managed into the ground?
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David Stirling
Independent Financial Adviser at Mint Wealth
With fewer people working and fewer jobs to apply for, this week is proving to be a real overachiever of a downturn, with inflation also up. It's all looking a bit dire again.
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Harry Goodliffe
Director at HTG Mortgages
The Chancellor needs to be the next one to lose a job. Everywhere you look there’s a negative announcement, jobs down, vacancies down, unemployment up. It’s a slow bleed that’s now turning into a full-on crisis. Wage growth might grab a headline, but it means little when people are losing work and businesses are cutting back. The economy isn’t bouncing back, it’s breaking down. This government seems totally out of answers.
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John Woolfitt
Director at Atlantic Capital Markets
This morning’s data signals continued softening in the UK employment market. These numbers are no real surprise, if your fiscal policy relies on taxing business, then inevitably the impact of raised costs will impact UK business and this is now feeding through. This is detrimental to the economy as a whole and we are seeing the proof of that emerge. Put simply, less people working, less people earning and less money feeding back into the economy. While wage growth remains strong, it may reflect lagged inflationary pressures rather than underlying labour market strength.