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Looking for expert comments from brokers on how much mortgage rates could potentially increase by short-term as lenders axe plans for cheaper deals

Journalist: Laura Purkess, Freelance

ended 04. March 2026

Looking for commentary from brokers/property experts around how much mortgage rates could rise in the near term as lenders are reportedly dropping plans to offer cheaper rates, for an article in The I Paper. Also interested in any thoughts on what the war in Iran could mean for interest rates over this year please. Thanks so much

4 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Steven Greenall
Mortgage and Protection Advisor at Protect & Lend
Lenders will be cautious moving forward and we’re unlikely to see any further reductions until there is greater clarity in the situation in the Middle East. Although the recent surge in energy prices, both Liquified Natural Gas and oil may mean the Bank of England are prudent and hold off cutting the base rate in the short term, I still see lower rates 3-6 months out.
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Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
Tensions in Iran have started to feed into the market that determines fixed rate mortgage pricing, as traders scaled back expectations for base rate cuts amid concerns that rising energy costs could push inflation higher. The initial reaction has not yet led to major increases in mortgage rates, but lenders will be watching the geopolitical situation closely. If the conflict drags on and oil and gas prices continue to climb, hopes of returning to the 2% inflation target could fade. With a large number of mortgages due to mature this year, any shift in expectations could quickly feed through to borrowers. The outlook is not looking as rosy as it was last week.
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Aaron Strutt
Product and Communications Director at Trinity Financial
Banks and building societies are set to increase their most competitively priced mortgage rates again, following the escalation of conflict across the Middle East. Clearly there is a lot of uncertainty and worry at the moment, not just in the money markets but also more generally. Funding costs in the money markets have risen and some lenders have already said this will have a knock-on effect on UK mortgage rates.
Santander recently made some large price improvements, especially to its low deposit mortgages, but it also made some small rate rises. The bank lowered its 2% deposit mortgage rate to 4.99% and confirmed the first batch of mortgage offers on its new low-deposit product were being produced for first-time buyers. It will be interesting to see what happens to mortgage rates over the next few days but there may well be some price hikes. There is also a reduced chance the Bank of England base rate in two weeks as predicted.
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Elliott Culley
Director at Switch Mortgage Finance
The main concern is the potential impact on UK inflation as a result of the tneisons in the middle east. We have already seen rises in oil prices and this will feed into other markets such as energy. Although the Bank of England were recently predicting inflation to be under control and 2% baked in, its likely these geo-political factors would likely mean the Bank of England would scale back these predcitions. As a result base rate reductions could be on the backburner. This has resulted in swap rates increasing this week, and lenders may have to follow this trend if there sustained period of uncertainty in the region. If borrowers are in the remortgage window (6 months from renewal) I would encourage them to look at sorting a deal as soon as possible.