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Land Registry HPI - October - and Private Rental Index (Nov)

ended 20. December 2023

At 09:30, the Land Registry is publishing its October House Price Index, which is based on completed sales, while the Office for National Statistics is publishing its November Index of Private Housing Rental Prices. Few Qs:

  • Though the Land Registry data may still show prices are falling due to the lag, have you seen increased demand for property among buyers over the past 2-3 months as mortgage rates have edged down?
  • Are the lack of stock and supply supporting house prices?
  • How are you expecting 2024 to shape up for the property market following this morning's better-than-expected inflation numbers and the prospect of a rate cut sooner rather than later?
  • What's the rental market like in your experience at present? Are tenants struggling to keep up as landlords have been forced to increase their rents?

Any other thoughts, fire them across. No trite Christmas one-liners. Oh go on then, tis the season to be merry.

8 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Bob Singh
Founder at Chess Mortgages
2023, in many respects, has been a difficult year for the property market. The tremors of the mini-Budget earthquake are still being felt after sending the markets into a tailspin. The Bank of England have steadied the ship of late and 2024 is shaping up to be a better year for the property market if all the indicators are true. Property prices have been shored up due to high demand and short supply. Meanwhile, tenants have been at the brunt of some brutal rent rises as landlords have been forced to hike rents. With over a million cheap rates ending next year, we are still not out the woods but the prospect of a rate cut has brought some Xmas cheer to the markets. The Bank of England could certainly use the light from Rudolph’s nose to show them the way in 2024.
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Craig Fish
Director at Lodestone Mortgages
Over the past couple of months, we have seen tentative signs of increased demand among first-time buyers and home movers in 2024. There has also been increased demand from landlords as rents are on the rise. These are only initial enquiries but it does seem to have come off the back of the positive signs that we are seeing with reducing mortgage rates and falling inflation. Prices still seem to be a little higher than buyers would like and this is being supported by the lack of stock. Next year could see a slight influx of property as some of those 1.4 million mortgage holders experience a level of rate shock that could force them to sell. This will undoubtedly have a further impact on prices, but with ever-decreasing mortgage rates, and almost certain base rate cuts next year, the property market looks set to wake from hibernation.
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Darryl Dhoffer
Founder at The Mortgage Geezer
Let's shed some light on this property market caper, though it feels about as merry as Marley's ghost rattling his chains.
Land Registry's a slow coach, eh? Prices might still show a downward tumble, like Scrooge counting his coppers, thanks to that lag. But whispers on the wind, tales from estate agents, tell a different story. Over the past few months, buyer demand's started to twitch, like Tiny Tim testing his new legs. Mortgage rates dipping a toe in the shallow end, that's what's got them curious.
Supply? It's as scarce as Cratchit's Christmas goose. Houses disappear quicker than the Ghost of Christmas Present's robes, leaving buyers with empty stockings and long faces. This lack of stock, it props up prices like Scrooge clutching his gold, keeping them from plummetin' like Marley into the abyss.
The property market's full of twists and turns, but keep your spirits high, as I feel 2024 could be the tinder that sparked the property and mortgage fire
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Elliott Culley
Director at Switch Mortgage Finance
Lack of housing will remain an issue and off the back of the latest data for inflation and the economic outlook it is likely we will see house prices steady and potentially start to creep up again. Targets on housing are being reduced so it's likely house prices will rise as will rent as landlords continue to exit the market.
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Matthew Jackson
Director at Mint FS
As we head into Christmas, we may just be seeing the property market awake from its slumber. Over the past few months, there has been a lack of stock, as sellers have hesitated from listing their properties due to high mortgage rates, weak prices and a lack of demand as affordability is squeezed for many buyers due to the cost of living and stagnant wage rises. Renters have been hit as landlords are forced to increase rents as lenders profiteer from the market by charging exorbitant rates and fees to remortgage investment properties. In some cases, the fees are as high as 10% of the amount borrowed. We are beginning to see a run on down valuations across the property spectrum as the lag in Land Registry data catches up with mortgage applications, which is causing chains to break just before Christmas. Fortunately, there are now positive signs for 2024 with mortgage rates dropping, house prices remaining stable and the latest inflation figures promising a buoyant start to the new year.
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Charles Breen
Founder at C B
Enquires are up hugely compared to 12 months ago, valuations are coming back without issue, estate agents are more realistic in what they are listing houses for, inflation is coming down and the base rate may be cut sooner rather than later. Barring a major shock or the Bank of England being totally detached from reality, it's looking like the foundations are being laid for a very strong year to come. The Land Registry data has a lag and is not a true gauge of current market conditions, so it's a misleading barometer in some respects. I believe that the worst of the pain in the property market is now behind us and that the next 12 months and beyond will be quiet strong. Last Christmas Liz Truss gave it away, but this year the bells are ringing out for Christmas.
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Steven Hargreaves
Mortgage and Protection Adviser at The Mortgage Co
We are seeing an increase in first-time buyer enquiries, which is very encouraging, especially in comparison to the previous 12 months. Increased confidence due to falling inflation and lower mortgage rates is having a material impact on first-time buyers returning to the market. Supply is still an issue, however, traditionally we do not have an influx of new properties to the market until early January. Hopefully, if estate agents can persuade their vendors to be realistic with asking prices in 2024, we are expecting the housing market to stop the rot, see first-time buyers, and even landlords return to the housing market, which will in turn see the housing market returning to some form of normaility.
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Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
We've seen increased property demand since October, as mortgage rates have started falling quite significantly from their summer highs. The question now is will the UK enter recession in 2024? Or will it continue to flatline before growing again. If it's the former, then house prices will continue to fall, perhaps by 5 percent over the year. But a soft landing looks increasingly likely.