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Land Registry HPI February 2023

ended 18. April 2023

The Land Registry February house price index is out on Wednesday morning at 09:30. It gets picked up widely in the media and should give us a better idea of what's REALLY happened to house prices since the catastrophic mini-Budget in September. It's based on completed sales, not all that Rightmove asking price nonsense. It follows two conflicting reports from the Nationwide and Halifax for March. The former said prices were down 3.1% on the year and fell by 0.8% last month. The latter said prices increased by 0.8% in March and are up 1.6% annually. Against this conflicting backdrop, a selection of Qs.

  • What the hell is REALLY happening to the property market given all the contradictory data out there right now?
  • Is it still a buyers' market or is the balance of power shifting slowly back to sellers given falling mortgage rates and the fact we MAY dodge a recession?
  • What are the key factors influencing the property market right now?
  • Which sub-sectors of the property market are strong and which are weak (amateur landlords, portfolio landlords, FTBs, downsizers, upsizers, window-shoppers, etc)?
  • What's going to happen to prices during the rest of 2023? Up, down, static?

Any other brilliant insights, fire away. If you can integrate a quote from Antonin Artaud into your response, we'll probably pin it. English translation best, s'il vous plait.

9 responses from the Newspage community

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Ross McMillan
Owner/Mortgage Advisor at Blue Fish Mortgage Solutions
Within the traditional property hotspots, demand is unwaveringly high, with supply nowhere near meeting this. Prices in the most sought after areas are now showing signs of even greater increases than before. In competitive situations in these areas, after a brief hiatus in this practice towards the end of last year, I am regularly now hearing of 10%-20% above survey valuation almost becoming the norm again. Beyond these hotspots, the picture is certainly less clear with instances of offers accepted around or even below survey valuation more commonplace but overall confidence in the property market remains strong with buyer appetite seemingly unrelenting. Personally, I think nationwide house price growth will be minimal across the year, if not flat, but on an individual and localised basis there will be noticeable variations. There are significant discrepancies in how local areas are performing.
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Jamie Minors
Managing Director at Minors & Brady LTD
The housing market is booming yet again, with demand surging and a strong appetite among home movers across the country. The pendulum had swung from a sellers' market to a buyers' market, but now we are seeing a far more even relationship across all price levels. We had anticipated a drop in prices of around 5%-6% for 2023, however this correction in pricing has now settled down due to mortgage rates steadily reducing and buyer confidence returning due to the less pessimistic economic forecast. There is also that evergreen, namely that staple in the UK where people want to own a better home. It's no surprise there is confusion over the conflicting reports from Halifax and Nationwide, given the data provided by them is internal data from their own mortgage applications. This is like doing a scientific experiment but using different environments and factors; put simply it isn't accurate.
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Samuel Mather-Holgate
Independent Financial Adviser at Mather and Murray Financial
The housing market is creaking and soon we’ll see bits falling off. Rates are still rising, the economy is set to perform worse than Russia and taxes on everyday people are the highest they’ve been for 75 years. Buyers can well and truly pick up deals now with discounts on asking prices of up to 20%. There are few sellers on the market, but those that enter must be doing so because they are desperate and buyers know this.
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Justin Moy
Managing Director at EHF Mortgages
The discrepency between both Nationwide and Halifax with their data suggests lower volumes of transactions that are giving some skewed trends. There is plenty of other information available such as mortgage approvals and borrowing that give us a better clue on the current property market. Locally we have seen plenty of flats come to the market, prices are challenged in this sector and the continued uncertainty of service charge costs and an overhang of cladding don't help. But stock is still smaller than demand, and with fewer incentives for new build, the number of people looking at the wider market still seems to be strong. We have seen a significant uplift of DIP requests, both for purchases and also for home improvements, so there must be some springtime confidence out there, somewhere.
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Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
The UK property market today is like speed dating, with eager purchasers jumping from one possible match to the next, looking for that ideal catch. Some seasoned players find themselves returning to tried-and-true solutions, while others play the numbers game, hoping that perseverance will pay off. When they finally find their dream home and consider putting a ring on it, the growing price tag feels like a lavish wedding,  causing them to think twice before saying "I do."
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Kundan Bhaduri
Property Developer and Portfolio Landlord at The Kushman Group
It's no secret that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the property market, with many people reassessing their priorities and looking for more space as they adjust to remote work and schooling. At the same time, the economic uncertainty caused by the pandemic has left some hesitant to make big purchases like a house.

In the words of French writer Antonin Artaud, "The true meaning of life is to be found in the depth of our own beings, in those rare moments when we feel a sense of inner peace when we are truly ourselves." This sentiment can be applied to the property market as well. It's important to remember that the true value of a home is not just in its market price but in the peace and security it provides for its inhabitants.
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Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
The conflicting house price data between Halifax and Nationwide is hard to fathom. Whilst they are likely to have slightly different customer profiles, I suspect the discrepancy is down to low transaction volumes over the winter months skewing the figures. Personally, I believe house prices are falling, as the Nationwide house price index consistently backs up. How can house prices still be rising when mortgage rates have at least doubled over the past 18 months? With more vendors coming onto the market now, I expect house prices to start falling significantly by the summer.
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Luke Thompson
Director at PAB Wealth Management
Conditions are considerably more positive in the property market than had been expected at the start of the year. At the minute, it's a buyer's market, with buyers able to get a fairly sizeable discount on the asking price for properties in my area. However, demand has remained fairly strong and people have definitely become more used to higher interest rates. Buy-to-let continues to be a problem area, with a number of my landlord customers looking to sell their properties at the minute due to higher interest rates and thus the reduced returns they are achieving. I think for the remainder of the year house prices will remain fairly flat. I feel that the south east and London may outperform other areas of the country and may see slightly higher house price growth.
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Austyn Johnson
Founder at Mortgages For Actors
Swap rates have stabilised nicely and lenders are getting competitive again. This is a good indicator of confidence in their side of the market. Although some areas of the country have seen property values drop, others have stayed the same. We are as busy as we were before, which, although we have a niche, should mean that there are good areas for business too across the nation. It should also be noted that the Bank of England has been a bit softer on its rate rising cycle than originally thought, and this should give us all some confidence of some stability.