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Land Registry HPI January: "House prices are still in the red but it's a slightly paler red"

ended 20. March 2024

This morning at 09:30 the Land Registry published its January House Price Index. It showed that average UK house price annual inflation was negative 0.6% (provisional estimate) in the 12 months to January 2024, compared with negative 2.2% (revised estimate) in the 12 months to December 2023. 

The average UK house price was £282,000 in January 2024 (provisional estimate), which is £2,000 lower than 12 months ago. Average house prices in the 12 months to January 2024 decreased in England to £299,000 (negative 1.5%), decreased in Wales to £213,000 (negative 0.8%) and increased in Scotland to £190,000 (4.8%). The average house price increased in the year to Q4 (Oct to Dec) 2023 to £178,000 in Northern Ireland (1.4%).

Of English regions, annual house price inflation was highest in the North West, where prices increased by 1.0% in the 12 months to January 2024. London was the English region with the lowest annual inflation, where prices decreased by 3.9% in the 12 months to January 2024.

Newspage asked property market experts for their thoughts, below.

10 responses from the Newspage community

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Stephen PerkinsVerified
Managing Director at Yellow Brick Mortgages
House prices are still in the red but it's a slightly paler red than in the 12 months to the end of December. This data has a lag of several months or so but is starting to show signs of life in the property market. After the positive inflation news this morning, a first base rate cut may not be too far off and that could inject some much-needed momentum into the market.
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Dariusz KarpowiczVerified
Director at Albion Financial Advice
Demand for residential property picked up noticeably at the start of this year, with increased interest from both first-time buyers and home movers. Looking ahead, unless we see a significant shift like a drastic cut in mortgage rates or government intervention to support the housing market in the UK, it's likely house prices will remain relatively stable. We might see small fluctuations of around -2% to +5%. The real catalyst for any major change in the property market will likely be lower mortgage rates or a targeted government scheme to encourage first-time buyers. But this morning's inflation data is a step in the right direction.
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Craig FishVerified
Director at Lodestone Mortgages
The Land Registry data lags behind real-time property market data by a number of months but this data at least shows an improvement. House prices have at the very least stabilised and I expect this to remain the same throughout 2024 with no real increase in values. We are certainly starting to see a build-up in enquiries from people looking to purchase and move home but there is hesitancy in decision-making because of higher interest rates. Following the fall in inflation to 3.4%, a cut to the base rate before the summer is now a very real possibility, which could see the property market take off.
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Austyn JohnsonVerified
Founder at Mortgages For Actors
Though annual price growth is still negative, it's less negative than it has been, and that's a positive. Prices are definitely being supported by the ongoing lack of stock and supply. As we head into spring and summer, things should improve. This is the time of year when we typically see an uplift in purchase applications and the latest inflation data could add to the feel-good factor.
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Graham CoxVerified
Director at Bridging Hub
Until more first-time buyers can afford to enter the housing market, property prices will remain flat. A base rate cut is key to improving market confidence and, after today's positive CPI print, that may now come sooner rather than later. The more time passes without one, the more likely it is that house prices will fall. While property demand is steady right now, it's still a long way down on the transaction levels from two years ago.
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Ross McMillanVerified
Owner/Mortgage Advisor at Blue Fish Mortgage Solutions
With 2024 now in full swing, Scotland's housing market is maintaining the momentum of 2023. Demand continues to outpace supply, fuelling fierce competition and robust prices across the board. The market shows no sign of this pattern changing in the coming months. First-time buyers remain insatiable for properties below £200k and with higher interest rates now considered the norm, those aspiring for family homes are creeping out of the winter gloom early and bouncing into the traditional spring market. Even the buy-to-let sector, long beleaguered by Scottish government interventions, is showing some signs of revival as some of these restrictions are set to ease. It's still early days but overall there is a note of optimism. Even if interest rates remaining stubbornly high despite the latest fall in inflation to 3.4%, it's hard to now see a scenario where prices in Scotland don't rise over the course of the rest of the year.
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Justin MoyVerified
Managing Director at EHF Mortgages
First-time buyer interest has slowed in the past 4-6 weeks as mortgage rates have deteriorated. However, the inflation data out today offers hope that lenders may start cutting again and reignite demand. I have definitely seen an increase in the number of higher value properties being purchased, typically with existing owners moving up the property ladder. Many are porting deals that have a few years left to run on lower fixed rates, hoping that market conditions will settle before they have to worry about the bulk of their borrowing. Smaller, lower value properties have not been as popular, hence the increase in overall prices given the sample is skewed to those larger properties.
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Mike StatonVerified
Director at Staton Mortgages
Whilst asking prices may have risen, we are seeing more and more downvaluations by lenders. People need to realise that estate agents are not qualified surveyors nor are they regulated and suffer no consequence for any ridiculous marketing valuation they give a potential seller. Asking prices are one thing while completion prices are the most important figure. There is one estate agent in my area that is notorious for overvaluing properties to win an instruction, whilst the rest of us are following consumer duty, these type of estate agents are having zero fair outcomes for their clients. The estate agent in question appears to have several properties on the market for nearly a whole year. This is completely unacceptable and this practise needs to stop.
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Akhil Mair0
Director at Our Mortgage Broker
Residential property demand remains relatively robust, driven by lower mortgage rates compared to a year ago, while limited housing supply is supporting prices. First-time buyers are especially active but landlords remain cautious. Meanwhile, upsizers are more engaged, likely due to evolving housing needs during the pandemic. The recent increase in asking prices noted by Rightmove may reflect sellers and agents capitalising on market momentum. However, final sale prices may differ, influenced by factors like mortgage rates. This year I expect continued upward pressure on house prices, albeit at a far more moderate pace than during the pandemic. Economic recovery, demographics, and supply-demand dynamics will shape the market. Potential triggers to ignite the market include Bank of England rate cuts, sustained economic growth, and government interventions aimed at promoting homeownership.
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Gary Bush0
Financial Adviser at MortgageShop.com
The market is still under pressure but things are improving based on this evidence. Although 2024 has kicked off with a good level of property activity, it will take the usual lag period for these transactions to work through the legal delay pipeline. We expect the full results of property activity for this year to be quite reasonable compared to the past 24 months. If lenders start cutting rates after this morning's inflation data, that will be a real boost.