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Interest rate decision

ended 16. March 2026

Thursday is Bank Rate decision day. What's going to happen? Your views by 07:30 please. You snooze, you lose.

7 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Stephen Perkins
Managing Director at Yellow Brick Mortgages
Due to the ongoing war in the Middle East, there is little chance of a base rate cut in the next six months, let alone this month. The best we can hope for is a hold at the current 3.75%, but an increase to 4% or perhaps higher is possible. Anyone thinking current mortgage rate spikes will quickly revert back down will be very disappointed.
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Wesley Davidson
Director at Fox Davidson
Hold at 3.75% is effectively locked in. Markets are pricing 85-90%+ for no change on Thursday, and with oil prices spiking on Iran energy risks, the MPC has no appetite to move. Inflation is still sitting around 3% and not falling at the pace the Committee expected. No cut is coming while oil is this volatile. April is the earliest realistic window if conditions settle. Clean hold, cautious tone. No panic, but cuts are delayed.
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Justin Moy
Managing Director at EHF Mortgages
No need for anything to change rhsi time round, best to wait and see what happens over the coming weeks. Where inflation is pushed more by world events than the behaviours of shoppers on the high street, there is no need to rein in spending or spook rates any more than necessary, and if the conflict does pass through in the next month or two, markets can get back to the slow and steady improvement in mortgage rates.
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Ben Perks
Managing Director at Orchard Financial Advisers
Hold. Trump blew up all hope of a base rate cut 2 weeks ago. The knock on effect of this war is not only British but Global economic uncertainty. It’ll be a short meeting and an easy vote for committee members.
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Editor
Babek Ismayil
CEO at homebuying platform OneDome
Few would against a hold on Thursday as the Bank of England adopts a wait-and-see approach to events unfolding in the Middle East. With the oil price soaring, inflation is now a real threat and that could see rates hiked in future meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee.
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Rohit Kohli
Director at The Mortgage Stop
The war in Iran is the story here. It has pushed oil higher, fed straight into inflation fears, and that has lifted gilt yields and swap rates. Once that happens, the case for a Bank Rate cut falls away very quickly. We are already seeing lenders raise rates on mortgages off the back of it. So for borrowers, Thursday matters less than the market move underneath it. The problem is not the Bank holding. The problem is that the war has made mortgage pricing worse again.
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Vijay Rabadiya
Founder & Director at The Mortgage Vine
The most likely outcome this week is a hold in Bank Rate, with the MPC remaining cautious despite inflation easing from its peak. While headline inflation has fallen, services inflation and wage growth remain sticky, making the Bank wary of cutting too early. However, the bigger story currently sits in financial markets rather than the MPC itself. Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher and triggered a rebound in swap rates, as markets reassess inflation risks and the pace of future rate cuts. That has already led to lenders repricing fixed mortgages. As a result, borrowers may see mortgage rates move independently of the Bank Rate decision. Even if the MPC holds this week, swap volatility means pricing in the mortgage market could remain unsettled in the short term.