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Inflation data out at 7am on Wednesday – answer as if inflation has gone DOWN

ended 17. December 2025

The ONS will release the latest UK inflation data tomorrow (17 December) at 7am.

Please, in preparation, answer as if inflation has gone down.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) is the headline measure of inflation that is used by the ONS and policymakers to measure the pace of price increases.

  • Why do you think inflation has gone down?
  • What does inflation going down mean for the base rate decision on Thursday?
  • What does it mean for mortgage rates?
  • What does inflation going down mean for your business?

Responses by 7am tomorrow.

11 responses from the Newspage community

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Darryl Dhoffer
Founder at The Mortgage Geezer
Ministers will be popping champagne in Whitehall this morning because the inflation rate finally ticked down. How dare they? Let’s be crystal clear: a decrease in the rate of inflation is not a decrease in prices. It just means we are getting poorer slightly slower than we were yesterday. Your grocery costs are not shrinking; we are just spending less because of the high costs. This government demands a victory lap for "taming" a crisis they engineered. They point to a decimal point on a spreadsheet; we point to empty fridges and stagnant wages. Celebrating this "drop" is like an arsonist asking for a medal because the house is burning down slightly less fiercely than it was an hour ago.
They claim they’ve turned a corner. In reality, they’ve just driven us into a ditch and are now bragging that the car has stopped rolling. The damage is done, and no statistic can undo it.
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Samuel Mather-Holgate
Managing Director & IFA at Mather and Murray Financial
With unemployment up and inflation down, it spells a counterproductive coup for the government. Reeves can take credit for a mega cut in interest rates if Bailey decides to chop them by 0.5% on Thursday. That should shock the economy into life for the post festive peridot as retailers try and claw back some lost profitability over a bad Christmas period.
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Tony Redondo
Founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange
After the recent dreadful GDP and employment data, finally, some relief for consumers, borrowers, and businesses with a second consecutive monthly fall in the UK CPI inflation rate, which all but nails on a 0.25% interest rate cut by the Bank of England tomorrow. No doubt the Chancellor will be taking to the airwaves to explain how, despite her dreadful inheritance, she is turning the UK economy around, and there are better times ahead for the UK. In reality, the fall in the inflation rate comes despite the record-breaking public-sector wage growth engineered by this Labour government and is largely due to the effects of the October energy price cap adjustment now fully feeding through, resulting in lower household energy bill increases compared to the prior year. Mortgage rates have been falling in the last few weeks anyway, but for businesses, a worrisome lack of confidence will mean that investment and spending will largely stay on a tight leash for most.
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Rohit Kohli
Director at The Mortgage Stop
CPI has eased, but it is still well above the Bank of England’s 2% target. I expect a 0.25% cut on Thursday because the economy is weak and needs support. That does not mean inflation is beaten. Government policy has created a cost ratchet for firms, and the next turns are already set. Energy bills rise in January as the price cap changes. Business rates increase across many sectors. Employer National Insurance remains a drag. None of this points to falling input costs. So while mortgage rates have been edging down, that may not last. A small move in swaps and lenders will reprice. Borrowers should secure deals promptly and be ready for further volatility.
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Rob Mansfield
Independent Financial Advisor at Rootes Wealth Management
Inflation was expected to ease and it's good news that it has but there is more to be done to get back down to the target of 2% This adds some justification for the Bank of England to cut the base rate on Thursday but they may take the safe path, hold and look for more progress on inflation coming down. With growth stuttering, inflation is robbing money of its value.
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Justin Moy
Managing Director at EHF Mortgages
This improvement in November's inflation might just be enough to encourage the MPC to cut the base rate ahead of Christmas, it’s a really tough call. Inflation is still running well over the Bank of England’s target of 2%, so it’s unusual to see base rate cuts at this time, but other factors such as rising employment and the stagnation of the UK economy are giving little choice but to bring the cost of borrowing down.
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Scott Gallacher
Director at Rowley Turton
Inflation is down not because prices are lower, but because they are rising less quickly than before. This is in part because last year’s big price rises are now more than 12 months old and have dropped out of the annual inflation comparison. Lower inflation makes an interest rate cut more likely.

As for mortgages, rates tend to be driven by expectations. This is hood news for borrowers as lower inflation is likely to lead to lower interest rates and lower mortgage payments. For businesses, lower inflation means less pressure from rising costs and a more stable environment for planning.
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Kundan Bhaduri
Entrepreneur, Investor and Landlord at The Kushman Group
Bank of England must now cut rates on Thursday, although this lower inflation was achieved by subdued demand which is no cause for celebration. Mortgage rates may ease slightly, providing marginal relief to homeowners, but for property developers like us, lower inflation means slightly reduced construction cost pressures but also a weaker buyer demand and much tighter lending conditions.

This is no economic victory but evidence that Rachel Reeves has successfully crushed consumer demand through relentless tax increases and regulatory burden. Prices fall when households stop spending, not when the economy improves, and the current disinflation reflects families cutting back on discretionary purchases while businesses struggle with higher employment costs and reduced investment. The Chancellor will doubtless claim credit for this statistical improvement while ignoring that it stems from economic weakness rather than policy success.
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Patricia McGirr
Founder at Repossession Rescue Network
Lower inflation is not relief. It is evidence households have hit the wall. Prices ease when people stop spending, not when life gets easier. Higher rates have forced many to cut back hard, drain savings and delay decisions, and that pressure shows up in the data before it shows up in arrears. For the Bank of England, falling inflation should rule out another hike this week. The question now is timing, not direction. Lower rates are good news for borrowers with strong credit and access to competitive deals. For savers, returns start to thin. For those with imperfect credit, the system barely shifts at all. They stay stuck on punitive rates. That imbalance is not economic theory. It is a governance choice.
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Rohit Parmar-Mistry
Founder at Pattrn Data
Let’s not break out the champagne. Inflation is down, but let’s be honest about why. This isn't a victory for the BoEs dusty economic playbook; it’s because the British public is exhausted. We’ve crushed demand by hammering disposable income so hard that price growth had nowhere left to go.

If the BoE has any sense, this greenlights an immediate base rate cut. But their rigid obsession with the 2% target means they’ll likely hesitate. They are fighting a war that is already over. Holding rates now isn't 'cautious'; it’s economically negligent.

For mortgage holders, remember: lenders hike rates like a rocket but drop them like a feather. Don't expect instant relief.

For my business, lower inflation means clients can stop firefighting costs and start planning. We might finally see investment in practical, human-centric automation rather than panic-buying cheap 'efficiency' tools. But until real wages genuinely outpace costs, this is just a statistical win, not a real-world one.
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Omer Mehmet
Managing Director at Trinity Finance
Inflation has edged down and the base rate looks set to follow it tomorrow. Let's not kid ourselves that all is well in the economy, because unemployment continues to rise, but a rate cut this week and more cut next year will help absorb some of the pressure weighing down on households.