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How will swaps respond to jobs data?

ended 17. February 2026

How do you expect swaps to respond to this jobs data? Continue to fall? Is this good news for borrowers or will the fragile state of the jobs market, as some have suggested, undermine the property market. After all, cheap rates mean nothing if you're out of a job or worried about it.

3 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Samuel Mather-Holgate
Managing Director & IFA at Mather and Murray Financial
It's a paradox because this likely means interest rates cuts by the central bank but the solvency of the UK government looks slightly more risky. We will likely see prices of different duration gilts shoot in different directions.
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Editor
Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
For those who want the Bank of England to cut rates, one of the likeliest scenarios in which it will do so is a cooling labour market. However, while this latest job's data may lead to the expectation of further and quicker rate cuts, which is great news for borrowers, it is a double-edged sword and will also have an impact on consumer confidence. Just because the mortgage on your next house may be cheaper, if you are worried about your job, you are less likely to make big financial decisions. Rising unemployment is not going to get Britain moving.
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Editor
Justin Moy
Managing Director at EHF Mortgages
This all adds to the narrative baked into the markets, so on its own it won't change much, but it will give confidence that the economy's slowdown is well underway and that Swap and mortgage rates will continue their slide throughout 2026. Yes, there will be blips as other factors affect the economy, but we will inevitably see mortgage rates consolidate in the 3% band if this economic slide continues.