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How are markets reacting to ceasefire?

ended 08. April 2026

How are markets reacting to the ceasefire in early trading? And which asset classes could benefit most if the ceasefire holds and the war is brought to an end? Any thoughts, and predictions, send them across ASAP.

4 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Darryl Dhoffer
Founder at The Mortgage Geezer
A whole 14 days of not poking the bear. The US and Iran have signed a ceasefire shorter than most gym memberships, and the markets are swooning like they’ve just witnessed world peace. Oil futures are retreating, and the "experts" are dusting off their party hats, expecting a rally that would make a bull blush.

But let’s get real: - if you’re waiting for wholesale mortgage prices to plummet, don’t hold your breath. This isn’t a "runway for lift-off"; it’s a temporary parking permit. Lenders aren't about to slash rates based on a truce that expires before your next haircut. Two weeks of quiet in the Middle East is a blink in the eye of the bond market. Keep your expectations in the basement—right next to the actual chance of this lasting.
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Tony Redondo
Founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange
Global markets have responded with a distinct sigh of relief after the US and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire, with shipping resuming through the Strait of Hormuz, as this best-case outcome avoids a significant escalation. European stock markets have opened sharply higher — the DAX in Frankfurt is up 4.4% and the CAC 40 in Paris up 3.76% at the time of writing. London's FTSE 100 is up 2.3%. Brent crude has plunged over 13% this morning to $94 a barrel. The shift towards risk appetite has weighed on the Dollar's safe-haven appeal, lifting the Pound to its strongest level since 23rd March. Should the ceasefire lead to peace talks, the positive sentiment should continue. If talks fail to materialise or break down, however, uncertainty and risk aversion are likely to return.
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Editor
Paul Denley
CEO at Oakham Wealth Management
Markets will price in relief, but not yet peace. Oil is softer, equities firmer, and the first beneficiaries are sectors that suffered most from disruption. Airlines, shipping and cyclicals move to the front of the queue as the Strait reopens and energy costs ease.
If the ceasefire holds, lower oil softens inflation, eases pressure on yields and gives rate sensitive sectors including tech room to breathe.
But peace has a price list, and not everyone likes the discount. Oil majors lose their geopolitical premium, while gold may drift as fear fades, though it still earns its keep as insurance.
This is a truce, not a treaty. Markets are trading the removal of tail risk, not the arrival of certainty.
Cyclicals should outperform if the Strait stays open, with defensives and energy lagging. Headlines can reverse quickly and ceasefires fray at the edges. Trade the discount, keep your protection, and never confuse a pause with a conclusion.
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Prem Raja
Head of Trading Floor at Currencies 4 You
Early trading has been decisively risk-on following the ceasefire announcement. We’re seeing a clear unwind of the geopolitical premium that had built up over the past few weeks. Oil has led the move, with WTI down around 10% as supply fears ease and the prospect of normalised flows through the Strait of Hormuz returns. At the same time, the dollar is softer, down roughly 1%, as safe-haven demand fades and investors rotate back into risk assets.

Equities are responding exactly how you’d expect, pushing higher globally on relief that escalation risk has been taken off the table, at least for now.

If the ceasefire holds and evolves into something more permanent, this environment likely extends. You could see further upside in equities, particularly cyclicals and growth, while oil continues to drift lower and the dollar remains under pressure. The key question now is whether this is a genuine turning point, or just a temporary pause before volatility returns.