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HMRC property transactions

ended 28. April 2023

Whoops-a-Daisy. The latest HMRC property transactions data (for March) is out at 09:30, which always gets picked up in the media. It covers residential and commercial transactions. So a few Qs for y'all. Deadline is 09:30. Answer any or all.

  • How hard did the mini-Budget omnishambles hit property transactions? We all know the answer to this one…
  • Are residential property transactions starting to edge up again? Many of you say people have now adjusted to the new norm for rates and the wheels of the property market are turning again…
  • After inflation staying in double digits last month, the rate cycle peak could now be higher. Will that dampen transaction levels or have lenders already priced it in? 
  • And what about commercial property transactions, which includes HMOs and mixed use?

Any other thoughts, wing them across.

6 responses from the Newspage community

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Paul Neal
Mortgages & Equity Release Advisor at First Choice Financial Services
There seems to be a bit of a lull in the market at the moment, with so much economic uncertainty and inflation still frightening high. We have seen a slight increase in transaction levels during the past 12 weeks but the problem remains a shortage of stock on the market, and the current stock out there is moving very slowly. Many people appear to be waiting for a drop in prices and rates but are overlooking the fact that lower interest will ignite demand, driving prices up again. In short, the current market is a great time to buy.
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Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
As homeowners continue to face financial challenges and lack of confidence, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the property market to bounce back. We are currently surfing an erratic wave, unclear of its final destination and how hard it is going to break. The essential actors capable of resolving the crisis work at No. 10 Downing Street, but given their track record to date, it appears they've relocated to Sesame Street.
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Bob Singh
Founder at Chess Mortgages
After the bird-strike mini-Budget, the aftershock immediately fed through into market sentiment and demand fell off sharply. But as the markets stabilised during the closing stages of the fourth quarter, things have gradually improved to the stage where there is an acceptance that rates are as low as can be for the time being. The prospect that we will likely see lower rates once inflation has been tamed has given the market some confidence. It’s still a buyers' market and motivated sellers are agreeing sales at lower prices to exit the market. Transaction levels are increasing steadily, as sub 4% rates are available. The commercial property market has been harder hit as interest rates are hitting 8%, meaning prices have dropped. 2024 will hopefully be a better year for all areas of the property market.
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Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
Mortgage approvals fell off a cliff late last year, about 45% lower than the year before. So it's unlikely completed transaction levels will improve much for a while. Overall, there's no doubt the housing market is flat. Buyers are wary of overpaying, and there are still far too many vendors holding out for silly money. With one or two more base rate rises mooted, there's a Mexican stand-off playing out. But as more sellers put their properties on the market over the coming months, prices will fall sharply.
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Gary Bush
Financial Adviser at MortgageShop.com
The went-a-bit-too-far mini-Budget slammed the brakes on the property market and led to the annual festive slowdown arriving early at the end of 2022. Fast forward to what is almost May 2023 and we have seen a remarkable comeback from property hunters, with stories of buyers in the double digits once again chasing the good property stock that comes to market. Inflation still being higher than expected will see a likely base rate increase on May 11th of at least 0.25%, potentially 0.5%. Commercial property transactions are a much harder thing to track, from where we sit, this is often due to the lengthy period they take to complete. The signs from the high street are proving extremely sluggish in our experience.
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Ross McMillan
Owner/Mortgage Advisor at Blue Fish Mortgage Solutions
The ill-fated mini-Budget crashed through the property market nationwide and undoubtedly brought it to a screeching halt for the remainder of 2022. The recorded sales, or lack thereof, that relate to that period are only now filtering through to the registered transactions and so it's inevitable and no surprise that these are significantly down on previous months. It's clear that there is significant divergence in activity across local areas but, in general, it would appear that buyers and sellers have adapted to the new norm and the higher interest rates that now accompany this. The Scottish market certainly has signs of heat within it in many areas and as we are now well into the traditionally busy and critical spring/summer period, it appears that, despite the fairly dismal weather, there are definite signs of a thawing out of the Truss-induced market freeze.