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Halifax HPI March 2022

ended 06. April 2022

I'd like to ask you for your views on self-flagellation and original sin, but sadly this News Alert is about house prices. On Thursday at 07:00, the Halifax is publishing its March House Price Index. It will almost certainly contain the same old nonsense, namely a lack of supply supporting prices, and a spokesperson worrying about rate rises and the cost of living crisis. So, here we go again, pushing the HPI boulder up the hill like Sisyphus, in an eternal hell, albeit one where, contrary to Camus, we do not believe Sisyphus was momentarily happy. If he was, he was stupid.

  • What were the main themes of the property market in March 2022?
  • Are we all going to be handing the keys to our homes back come the end of the year as prices collapse and people start eating each other in the streets?
  • Will the lack of stock and supply continue to support prices, even if the economy tanks spectacularly?
  • How do you reckon the property market will be looking in one year's time?
  • Are mortgage lenders going to put the brakes on the market as they update their new affordability calculations to reflect the fact it costs £245.56 to have a shower?

If you can get the phrases ‘self-flagellation’ or ‘original sin’ into your responses, I'll more likely pin your comment to the top.

6 responses from the Newspage community

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Rob Peters
Principal at Simple Fast Mortgage
"March saw intrepid first-time buyers compete with other manic buyers on a journey of self-flagellation, otherwise known as house hunting. And all this against a stratospheric rise in the cost of living. As yet, the economic factors at play are not strong enough to take the steam out of the property market. However, with lenders now adjusting their affordability calculations, a cooling in prices does seem likely. In the red corner, you have an extreme lack of supply, in the blue corner, an economy that is groaning due to inflation and rate rises. Who wins the fight is anyone's guess."
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Imran Hussain
Director at Harmony Financial Services
What were the main themes of the property market in March 2022? The main theme for the property market in march was the demand still outstripping supply quicker than I can say, ducky, and this is likely to continue throughout 2022. Are we all going to be handing the keys to our homes back come the end of the year as prices collapse and people start eating each other in the streets? No, unless people really end up in dire states most people will always ensure the important stuff is paid for such as their mortgage and utilities so there should not be a mass barrage of people handing keys back in. Will the lack of stock and supply continue to support prices, even if the economy tanks spectacularly? Prices have already started to level off in most areas as surveyors are not taking any prisoners with their valuations. How do you reckon the property market will be looking in one year's time? In one years time demand shall continue to outstrip supply as there are currently no incentives for sellers to off load property. Are mortgage lenders going to put the brakes on the market as they update their new affordability calculations to reflect the fact it costs £245.56 to have a shower? Lenders are always going to have a close eye on costs of living and adjust what they will lend to borrowers.
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Mark Dyason
Owner at Edinburgh Mortgage Advice
"Though the rate of annual growth is unlikely to stay in double digits, house prices will likely continue to rise throughout 2022. However, transaction levels will fall as people become more cautious about putting their properties on the market and moving up the ladder. The extreme lack of stock will be the main driver for ongoing price rises as nothing in the economy supports an increase. In fact, everything points to a significant correction, but then that's not a phrase the property market appears to understand. Mortgage affordability is under pressure from the cost of living increase, but this is happening at a time where the current cap on income multiples may be lifted. However, just because you can borrow more doesn't mean that you should. You don't need larger mortgage payments when all the basics are costing far more."
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Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
"House prices continue to defy all reason and logic, but that may soon come to an end, Rishi Sunak's underwhelming Spring statement completely missed the mark. It was almost like the multi-millionaire Chancellor couldn't quite comprehend the gravity of the crisis heading towards the nation's poorest like a runaway train. At this point, I can only see property prices falling over the coming months. For their affordability assessments, mortgage lenders are now factoring in a multiplicity of factors, from the Ukraine, National Insurance increase and dividend tax hikes, to the energy cap shooting up, higher interest rates and the price of pretty much everything heading north. And right now, there's no sign of things getting better anytime soon unfortunately. Shortage of housing stock or not, if the banks or building societies won't lend as much, or as often, prices are going to fall. Long term, this would actually be a good thing for the UK economy, but anathema to a government that believes in free markets, except when they start affecting their chums in the City of London. So I'm expecting a further stamp duty holiday, or a new help to buy on steroids program to follow in short order."
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Marcus Wright
Managing Director at Bolton Business Finance
"Although property prices have had a strong start to 2022, I doubt this will continue all year. As mortgage rates creep up and energy bills treble, this is bound to have a chilling effect on house prices as the year goes on. However, that being said, most "experts" predicted a housing crash from Covid when quite the opposite happened."
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Rob Gill
Managing Director at Altura Mortgage Finance
"Having achieved double-digit growth through a global pandemic, the UK housing market has shown itself to be as resilient as a cockroach when it comes to surviving cataclysmic events. Though the cost of living crisis is clearly very serious and will put many people into extreme financial hardship, it would take a brave person to bet against it."