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GDP: lawyers see busy fourth quarter, says ONS

ended 10. February 2023

The latest GDP data is just out, and shows the economy flatlined in Q4, narrowly avoiding recession. In December, the economy contracted by 0.5% Interestingly, Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics (ONS), said that the falls in many sectors in December “were partially offset by a strong month for lawyers”. So what was keeping lawyers busy last month? If it was commercial disputes, that suggests all's not well in the economy… Please send across some thoughts ASAP as this story is BREAKING.

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Whenever there is a downturn in the economy, disputes rise and that likely explains the busy month for lawyers. It's a worrying signal. As a former solicitor, I noticed this when I was in private practice and as someone advising law firms since 2003, it's still the case. Whilst some sectors of the economy take a downturn in tough economic times, insolvency and debt recovery will always rise. As businesses feel the pinch and cash flow slows down, they are quicker to resort to litigation to recover monies owed to them. Other businesses are unable to pay their bills so liquidation or administration looms. All of this means more work for commercial lawyers. It is also the case with private work. Suddenly people who would not normally consider making a claim for medical negligence or personal injury are cash-strapped so decide to do so.
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As economic problems grow, so too do legal cases. We have seen an increase across a number of areas but the correlating factor is economic pressure and worries. This has driven an increase in relationship failings, resulting in more divorce enquiries, and Trust of Land disputes amongst unmarried couples. It has also driven business/contract disputes amongst companies and small businesses. We are also starting to see an increase in estate enquiries as people look to protect as much of their hard-earned savings as they can from Inheritance Tax. The bad news for the wider economy is, that whilst December was busy, January was manic for enquiries. The economic pressures of rising bills are increasingly being felt and even a significant reduction in inflation will not make a great deal of difference.