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Evening Standard - Comment from London based brokers and estate agents

ended 05. April 2023

The Evening Standard's Business Editor would like your thoughts on the direction of London house prices:

  • Where will prices go next? Can you give a % as well for the year - up/down
  • Any particular areas of London performing better than the rest?

Only mortgage brokers/estate agents who cover London area to quote please.

5 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Samuel Mather-Holgate
Independent Financial Adviser at Mather and Murray Financial
Listing prices are remaining high, but sellers are accepting lower offers. House price data is starting to show a fall and this will continue over the next 6 months. Prices in the capital will be down by 10% in September, which is where the bottom will rest. If the central bank cuts rates aggressively as inflation fall, as they should do to prevent a recession, then property prices should rebound and by year-end it could be a flat return. The one sector, immune, will be ultra-prime real estate as the pound remains weak there will be an influx of money from the East as China starts travelling again. Expect double-digit returns in this area as normal service for the wealthy is resumed.
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Editor
Andrew Montlake
Managing Director at Coreco
The property market has always been more robust than many assume, but it is important not to jump to conclusions early on in the year. We have seen a bounceback in enquiry levels showing that demand is strong, whilst supply is still nowhere near where it should be. With mortgage rates now falling to more realistic levels, the spring period has sprung with some cautious optimism.

Flatlining is the more likely scenario for house prices over the course of the year and prices will differ as regionalisation becomes more pronounced. In London, this regionalism is more acute and we are once more seeing sealed bids and best and final offers in high-demand areas, for example within good school catchment areas.

Overall prices look set to perhaps fall no more than around 7% overall, a mere correction after the froth of the post-Covid years, before recovering towards the end of this and into next year. This means that this year could well be the optimum time to buy.

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Gary Bush
Financial Adviser at MortgageShop.com
London prices are still showing an inner and outer perspective - inner London are, on the whole, slower to move, due to shrinking demand, and seeing slower growth rates. Outer London zones have a shortage of decent properties coming to market and this, therefore, is encouraging gazumping and property chasing by buyer groups in double figures. We would expect all London properties to show positive % growth by the end of 2023 as long as another "we went a bit far" government action doesn't occur.
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Dean Esnard
Director at Magni Finance
With the most competitive 2 year fixed rate now at 4.08%, mortgages are more affordable than they were in Q1. As interest rates continue to come down, buyer demand will increase which will naturally push house prices up. If 2-year fixed rates break through the 4% barrier, this will be very good news for the market.
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Adam Smith
Founder at Alfa Mortgages
From dealing with our London based clients, the feeling is that prices are currently down by around 3%. But the future feels uncertain.