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EMPLOYMENT TRIBUNALS: THE QUIET BEFORE THE STORM (AND A 2029 PROBLEM)

ended 06. March 2026

I spoke to an ACAS conciliator yesterday, and the message was blunt.

The system is clogging. Claims are rising. Early conciliation volumes are picking up. And the Employment Rights Act reforms are only weeks away from taking effect, changing how employers need to operate in real time.

The bit that should make every employer sit up is this.

We are now looking at 2029 for some cases to reach a full hearing.

That means an allegation made today can sit in the system for years. Even if you have done everything right, the process itself becomes the punishment. Time, cost, stress, management distraction, witness memories fading, key people leaving, documents getting lost, and insurers getting twitchy.

Now add the current workplace reality.

Bigger employers are already seeing an increase in grievances and disciplinaries, which is usually the earliest sign that tribunal risk is building. HR teams are burning out because they are dealing with higher volumes, tighter expectations, and constant change.

And there is another accelerant.

ChatGPT has become everyone’s legal adviser.

Employees and managers are using it to draft grievances, responses, and “what are my rights” messages. AI can be useful, but it is only as good as the facts typed into it. Employment law is context-heavy. If the prompt is missing key details, the advice can be confidently wrong. That is how misunderstandings become formal disputes, and formal disputes become claims.

For SMEs, this matters even more.

You do not have spare bandwidth for a three-year stress test.

You do not have a huge HR team to absorb a constant stream of ER issues.

You do not have time for vague processes and “we’ll deal with it if it happens”.

This is the quiet before the storm.

 

Questions for small business owners to ask themselves right now

  • Are we seeing more “formal” behaviour at work?  More grievances, more written complaints, more “I want it on record” messages, more requests for meetings.
  • Are our managers escalating too fast, or avoiding issues until they explode?  Which one is happening more often, and why.
  • If an employee raised a grievance tomorrow, could we prove we handled it fairly and consistently? Not “we know we did”. Prove it. Notes, timelines, evidence, outcomes, rationale.
  • What is the impact of disputes sitting around for years on our business? Could we cope with a case hanging over us until 2029 in terms of leadership time, stress, reputation, and cost.
  • Have we accidentally outsourced our HR judgement to the internet?  Are managers and employees relying on AI answers and TikTok rights advice instead of asking internally and getting the facts checked properly.
  • What is burning us out right now?  Is it volume, messy managers, lack of process, repeated absence issues, performance avoidance, poor documentation, or simply too much change landing at once.

Sources

https://www.acas.org.uk/early-conciliation/how-early-conciliation-works

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tribunals-statistics-quarterly-july-to-september-2025/tribunal-statistics-quarterly-july-to-september-2025

https://www.lawsociety.org.uk/contact-or-visit-us/press-office/press-releases/employment-tribunal-backlog-continues-to-spiral

https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/15366/default/

2 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Kate Underwood
Founder & Chief People Strategist at Kate Underwood HR and Training
Three years of tribunal limbo is not justice, it’s workplace waterboarding for small businesses.
If claims really are drifting to 2029 for a full hearing, the process becomes the punishment. Even when you’ve done things properly, you are stuck with the stress, the distraction, the sleepless nights, and the “what if” hanging over your team. 
On bogus claims, let’s be honest: most people aren’t chancing it for fun, but some are absolutely trying it on. The fix is not hand-wringing, it’s triage. Faster early sift by a judge, more robust strike-outs, proper deposit orders where a case looks weak, and real cost consequences for unreasonable behaviour on either side. And case management that forces both parties to set out the facts and evidence early, not vibes and screenshots.
If the system stays clogged, everyone loses, including genuine claimants. Fix the plumbing and make the timeframes predictable.
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Rohit Parmar-Mistry
Founder at Pattrn Data
Employment tribunals look quiet right now, but that is a backlog illusion. When cases take years to reach a hearing, you are not seeing less conflict, you are just storing it up. For employers and employees, the real cost is uncertainty that drags on until 2028 or 2029 and corrodes culture and productivity.

The smartest move is not ‘lawyer up’ after it explodes. It is disciplined early resolution: managers trained to handle issues fast, consistent grievance processes, and documentation that would survive scrutiny. ACAS early conciliation only works if you have facts straight and someone empowered to act. In our AI Audits we see HR teams leaning on templates, chatbots and ‘TikTok employment law’. That shortcuts judgement and creates confidently wrong decisions that end up formal.

If your process cannot show fairness, timelines and rationale, you are already exposed. The question is not if you get a claim, it is whether you can survive the wait. Fix basics before the queue reaches you.