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Could the war be over?

ended 23. March 2026

President Trump has said the following on Truth Social this morning:-

Following this, oil prices have retreated, as have global bond yields. Given the increased market volatility we have seen over the last few weeks, could we see the financial market calming down?

What are the implications for mortgage pricing? How will this impact investors? Based on Trump's history, are things still likely to change?

 

6 responses from the Newspage community

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Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
The markets reacted very positively to the news, but there are two sides to this war, and the Iranians are yet to confirm the same intention. The financial markets have been exceptionally volatile recently, amid fears of inflation spiralling out of control and the cost-of-living crisis deepening. This could either be the start of normalisation or a temporary reprieve. It is not over yet!
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Justin Moy
Managing Director at EHF Mortgages
This could be the defining pause in the conflict; markets have improved a little following President Trump's announcement, but the ongoing issues in the Middle East will continue to make the world's economy nervous. From a mortgage perspective, this will, at least, allow lenders to catch their breath without the need to increase rates practically every day. Still very early days to talk about mortgage rate cuts.
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Steven Greenall
Mortgage and Protection Advisor at Protect & Lend
If hostilities start winding down from here, swap rates and thus mortgage rates will begin retreating. As quickly as they surged? unlikely, as lenders will still be a bit trigger happy but it could be a start to the 6-12 months part of the curve coming off
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Tony Redondo
Founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange
Critics will take great delight in shouting that this is the latest example of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). Instead, I would suggest it’s nothing more than a "tactical pause" rather than a strategic shift. President Trump’s five-day postponement of strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure will provide a vital, if brief, relief valve for global markets. Following his Truth Social announcement, Brent crude tumbled over 13% toward $100 per barrel, while global bond yields retreated as the immediate "war premium" evaporated. For mortgage pricing, the fall in government bond yields is a positive signal; if sustained, it lowers the swap rates used to price fixed-term deals, potentially halting the recent trend of rapid rate hikes by lenders. Any breakdown in these "productive conversations" could see an instant return to peak volatility and soaring energy costs. For now, the world is holding its breath.
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Anita Wright
Chartered Financial Planner at Ribble Wealth Management
By Trump starting this ridiculous attack on Iran, whether at the behest of Israel or otherwise, is largely immaterial. The key point is that US has now got involved is the worst political made by any US president. This was initially positioned as a short, contained conflict something that would be over within days, yet here we are several weeks in, and the narrative coming from Trump appears increasingly at odds with what is unfolding in reality. Iran’s attitude towards the US is openly hostile and deeply distrustful, framed more in existential terms than diplomatic ones. Tehran does not see Washington as a neutral party or even a limited adversary, but rather as the central force underpinning Israel, the regional military presence, and the broader pressure being applied to Iran. That fundamentally changes the nature of the situation. The tone from Iran is therefore not one of compromise or de-escalation, but of attrition, retaliation and long term strategic resistance.
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Rohit Parmar-Mistry
Founder at Pattrn Data
Is the war over? No. One statement is not a settlement, and Iran saying talks are not happening tells you the "de escalation" narrative is still mostly hope.

Trump may need this to end quickly for domestic optics, but public posturing, including threats around energy infrastructure, can still move crude and risk assets even if nothing changes on the ground.

Is that market manipulation? Hard to prove without evidence of intent or coordination. Messaging that predictably moves prices is not automatically an illegal scheme, but it does manufacture tradable volatility.

Betting markets like Polymarket can show sentiment too, but I have not seen any verified, public analysis of suspicious positioning linked to this headline. But it has in the past had suspicious bets placed around when Trump posts on Truth Social.

But we all sit here at the whims of a petulant child as he continues to threaten, attempt de-escalation and rave about how much of a success they have been...