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Buy, sell or hold - what should homeowners do?

Journalist: Rebecca Goodman, Freelance

ended 29. June 2023

Hi,

I'm looking for experts for an Independent article looking at what homeowners (and first-time buyers) should do this summer- Buy, Sell or Wait.

The feature will include three or four experts sharing their views, advice and tips for those looking to move or buy their first home.

 

10 responses from the Newspage community

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Anyone buying or selling in is always subject to market conditions so you wonder if there is ever a good time. It is all about individual requirements and preferences. People who are waiting for a property crash to arrive and to take advantage of such an opportunity will be disappointed. We don't think anything will happen beyond normal market fluctuations and with net migration to the UK at 606,000 for 2022, coupled with chronic supply issues, the demand for housing remains strong. From a first-time buyer perspective, whilst rates have increased, they have not peaked. Expectations of a base rate hitting 6.5% by April 2024 means that high street mortgage rates will likely be pushing to 7% during this period. If you are thinking of buying now, do it, or be in for a long wait.
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If you are moving to the local area, then the issues of property prices are minor - if prices are about 10% lower than their high, that will be for both properties so that the gap will be pretty constant between them. We had one client have an offer accepted on a new property £100k less than the asking price, but have only lost about £40k on their own asking price, so the gap has improved by £60k on paper, and that more than covers the increase in mortgage costs. With many looking to port their existing deal, the ability to use a current low fixed rate that may have 3-4 years remaining is appealing, subject to confirmation by the current lender. Best to speak to your broker to confirm your portability. For homeowners, it's a relative market, for a First Time Buyer, this may become an ideal time to buy, just watch those mortgage costs, but savings on the asking price should more than cover any increased mortgage payments.
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As a homeowner, if you want to move then even if your property price may be lower today than it was a year ago, so will the property you're buying - all other things being equal. You may also be able to move your current mortgage rate over to your new property - this is called "porting" and means you can avoid any early repayment charges and continue to benefit from what may be a very competitive rate compared to what you'd get now.

For first-time buyers, there will perhaps be "bargains" out there but the reality is that many people will simply take their homes off the market if they can't sell for what they want. Our advice has always been to treat a property you buy to live in as a home, not primarily as an "investment", even though that tends to also be the case over the longer term.
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If you can afford to buy then you should buy. We have a housing supply deficit that is unlikely to be bridged, a growing population and limited space.

If you are considering buying a home now, and I stress the word home, you are likely to own a property for 40+ years. Rates will be higher than they are today and rates will be lower than they are today but values, over the long term, have only ever increased.
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In our opinion, and with the property market on the whole across the UK still being busy, First Time Buyers need to get their feet firmly on the ladder - we don't see any massive crash in property prices likely, we'd probably advise on a 2 year fixed rate as current market swap rates are overcooked and showing poor value in fixes. Homeowners needing to move properties at the moment, by either upscaling or downsizing, are in an even position if they aren't looking to change locations - the property they are selling and the property they are buying will have market value adjustments on them both. It's clear that homeowners buying further north will find busier market activity and of course, will cash in on the vast difference in property values between regions.
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If you want to move, move. Regardless of what happens to house prices if you have to sell yours for less, you can buy for less and vice versa. In fact a shift to more of a buyers market could even make buying or moving home a bit easier. The alternative to owning a home is renting and rents are increasing faster than Usain Bolt after his McNuggets with a perfect storm of reduced supply and massively increased demand. It's best to stay well clear if you can.
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Unless you really need to buy now for family, job or practical reasons, I recommend a wait-and-see approach. House prices, whilst falling, are still relatively near their peak, and interest rates are probably close to theirs. So it's the worst of both worlds.

Property values could quite easily decrease by 20% over the next couple of years, with the pace of falls accelerating rapidly throughout the rest of 2023.

First-time buyers with small deposits should be particularly cautious, as they have a far greater risk of falling into negative equity, where their property is worth less than the mortgage secured on it. If you must buy now, drive a hard bargain, don't get into silly bidding wars, be cautious and don't overpay. It's a buyer's market now.
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“’How long is forever?’ ‘Sometimes just one second,’” – as the White Rabbit said to Alice. Waiting to buy or sell a property is always risky, and it’s very hard to time things perfectly. Anyone who needs to sell, for whatever reason, should keep an eye on prices in their local area and price sensibly. And for those people who really want to buy a home this summer – there are opportunities out there -- if you've done the maths. And are ready to negotiate. Now, more than ever, people have to pay close attention to exactly what’s going on with their budgeting, savings, and spending. As well as what's happening with rates and house prices. Above all, for anyone buying a home or an investment property, their main goal should be to run the numbers meticulously, watch the market, take heed of rate changes, and proceed accordingly.
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Carry on as normal, why miss out on your dream house because you want to see if things change in a year? What if it doesn't change for 20 years, want to wait that long? Just move forward, we only get so many summers.
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If you're buying your first home, your mortgage is sorted, and you have job security, then buying a house could be right even if loans are pricey. Falling house prices can counterbalance a higher loan rate. If you plan to stay put for a long time, try not to worry about prices going up and down – this will be your home after all. Plus, renting is costly and it's hard to find good places. For existing homeowners, if you've paid off most of your home, you could make money from selling it, if it has risen in value since purchase. Selling could be smart if you’re downsizing, particularly if you have equity in your home and house prices are falling. But, if you don't need to move immediately, or moving means a bigger mortgage with a higher rate, then perhaps wait. Another option is let to buy, where you rent out your existing home and buy another elsewhere. This could work well if you're moving to a lower house price area. With rents rising, letting out your existing home could be smart.