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Budget 2025 curveballs

ended 18. November 2025

We're looking for your thoughts on any curveballs that you think the Government could unleash in next week's Budget. Fiscal tweaks that have not been picked up by the media to date, but you think could feature. If you think something's coming that hasn't been covered yet by the media, send us your views by COB and we will publish in the AM. 

4 responses from the Newspage community

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Pete Mugleston
Mortgage Advisor & Managing Director at onlinemortgageadvisor.co.uk
I’m expecting Rachel Reeves to introduce National Insurance on rental income. Rumours are circulating that the Chancellor needs to find around £30bn, and this measure alone could reportedly raise about £2bn per year.

It will be deeply unpopular with landlords, many of whom are already exiting the sector due to rising costs and new regulation under the Renters’ Rights Bill, but it may play well with Labour’s progressive voter base, who may view it as an acceptable tax raid.
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Tony Redondo
Founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange
During QT (Quantitative Tightening), the BoE pays interest on commercial bank reserves, profits that critics, including the centre-left think tank the Institute for Public Policy Research, argue are unearned. The IPPR proposes taxing these windfall profits, potentially raising £7-8 billion annually. The proposal addresses the perceived unfairness of banks profiting from central bank policy while taxpayers bear QE (Quantitative Easing) unwinding costs, offering significant revenue without directly affecting households. It has a historical precedent in Thatcher's 1981 bank levy, which successfully raised funds during a recession, and would be politically popular by targeting institutions seen as undertaxed. However, concerns exist. The levy could reduce banks' lending capacity if it impacts capital buffers and may be passed to customers through higher borrowing costs or lower savings rates.
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Oli Garnett
Co-Founder at Something Familiar.
If the Government wants a real Budget curveball, they’ll probably tax something no one has ever thought about. We’ve already taxed work, energy and breathing, so my money’s on something absurd like a “digital laziness levy” for anyone who uses AI to write emails, or a charge for having more than three streaming services. They could even introduce a “vibes tax” where households pay extra if they seem too optimistic about the economy. At this point nothing would surprise me. The only guarantee is that whatever the curveball is, it won’t fix anything but it will definitely cost us all a fiver.
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Simon Thomas
Managing Director and Chartered Accountant at Ridgefield Consulting
The UK Chancellor could announce that she will have to return to the idea of raising income tax – but not for everyone. Just on the additional rate, and increase it from the current 45% to 50%. After all, the former Labour Prime Minister and Chancellor Gordon Brown, apparently one of Rachel Reeves’ political heroes (she had a picture of him on the wall at university!), put it up to 50% in the first place in 2009. Reeves could also bring down the threshold where the additional rate kicks in, perhaps taking it down to £100,000, to try to raise more money. This might allow her to do something else surprising – she could CUT the rate of VAT but broaden what it applies to. There are many zero rated and exempt items which could be brought into the main rate of VAT, enabling her to cut the headline rate and still manage to bring in enough money to pay for it.