Brokers anticipate two base cuts before February

More than half of mortgage brokers (52%) say they expect at least two cuts before the end of February 2026.

Landbay asked mortgage brokers, “How many interest rate cuts will there be by the end of February 2026?”.  Of the brokers surveyed, more than half (52%) said they expected at least two cuts before the end of February 2026.

While ten in every eleven brokers (91%) told the specialist buy-to-let lender that they predicted at least one further cut, only one in eleven (9%) suggesting there would be no more cuts from the MPC over the period.

One in eight of the brokers polled (12 per cent) said they expected three more cuts with four in every ten (40%) said they expected two more cuts.  A similar number (40%) said they expected another cut before the end of February 2026.

Research from Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests the August cut may be a “one-and-done” move, with their chief UK economist, Rob Wood, forecasting just one additional cut in 2025, likely in November, due to persistent wage growth and sticky inflation.

Rob Stanton, sales and distribution director at Landbay, said: “Our research shows mortgage brokers are overwhelmingly optimistic about further interest rate cuts, with 91% expecting at least one more this year.  This confidence reflects a strong belief in continued monetary easing, which could boost borrowing and market activity.  And over half of the intermediaries we polled told us they anticipate at least two cuts by year-end suggesting robust expectations for the back end of 2025.  While brokers clearly see sustained economic support from the Bank of England, I wonder if two cuts before the end of the year might look like wishful thinking following the July inflation figures.  Either way, Landbay is committed to helping our broker partners navigate this evolving landscape.”

Rohit Kohli, Director at Romsey-based The Mortgage Stop commented:

"The idea of two cuts by February feels detached from what’s actually happening. Inflation is proving stickier than forecast and energy costs are rising again, which makes it harder for the Bank of England to keep easing. Some MPC members have already warned about moving too quickly, so a pause looks far more likely than back-to-back cuts. I can see one reduction before year-end, but expecting another straight after may prove to be wishful thinking. Borrowers should plan on rates falling more slowly than headline surveys suggest."

 

Samuel Mather-Holgate, Independent Financial Adviser at Swindon-based Mather and Murray Financial commented:

"A lot of brokers have cognitive dissonance. History tells us that the central bank is hawkish on rates, and slow to act. It would be surprising if there was more than one rate cut before February, despite this being a sensible approach and one that would make a real difference to households' quality of life. Bailey has inflation fixed in his head, and whilst it is higher, and set to rise higher, there’s no chance of substantial cuts."

 

Craig Fish, Director at London-based Lodestone Mortgages commented:

"Clearly there has been a delay in conducting the research and the release of the article, because the economic landscape has shifted considerably. Whilst a couple more cuts would be nice, I don’t seem them happening, unless Rachel Reeves pulls a rabbit out of the hat or resigns in the Autumn."

 

Michelle Lawson, Director at Fareham-based Lawson Financial commented:

"Understanding baseline economics and the factors around rate changes helps differentiate reality from hope. With inflation increasing due to all the individual factors in the calculations, indications are that the cuts are over for now. As we all know, that can change on a sixpence though."

 

Rob Mansfield, Independent Financial Advisor at Rootes Wealth Management commented:

"Two cuts seems ambitious. Inflation is threatening to bubble up again and so if the labour market weakens significantly, we might see one cut but two seems bold. The US government are agitating for faster cuts, but it remains to be seen if that's a good strategy."

 

Aaron Strutt, Product and Communications Director at London-based Trinity Financial commented:

"Two more base rate cuts does seem quite punchy but stranger things have happened. The MPC's job seems like it is going to get even harder as it tries to balance inflation while keeping the economy moving. Lots of homeowners are still coming off cheap mortgage rates and their monthly repayments are shooting up, money that would be spent in the economy is now mostly going to the lenders."