Barclays increases its mortgage rates by up to 0.37%

It comes as no surprise that Barclays are increasing their rates after the financial markets start to react to the escalations in the Middle East. The amount of some of the increases that Barclays are making are significant, it strikes me that they feel that rates could be increasing for a while to come. Despite mortgage rates reducing on a consistent basis since the peace deal was struck a month ago, this has all been undone in a matter of days and it will not be long until the rest of the market starts to follow Barclays.

Six lenders repricing in two and a half days isn't a blip, it's a warning shot. Barclays' 0.37% hike on its EMC Reward deal is the sharpest of the lot, and it tells you swap rates are moving faster than lenders can quietly absorb. This isn't lenders getting nervous off their own back. It's oil prices and Middle East tension feeding straight into swap rates, and swap rates feeding straight into what you pay.The real question isn't whether rates are rising, they clearly are. It's whether this is a sharp correction or the start of a longer climb. That depends entirely on whether the ceasefire holds. If you're anywhere near a renewal and see a rate you can live with, take it. This is not the week to sit on your hands hoping for better.

This is the real knock-on effect of the unrest in the Middle East; it lowers confidence in the monetary system, and ultimately, mortgage rates will increase. This move by Barclays is one of a number of announcements in the last 24-48 hours from lenders having little choice but to reflect those Swap rate increases, and other major lenders will inevitably follow this week. As always, we recommend engaging with a broker who can see what is happening with rates ahead of the general public, benefit from their expertise and speed, and continue to proactively check for improvements with your chosen lender. They will more than justify their fee.

The ceasefire wobble we warned about is spreading, and the mortgage market has responded with its usual subtlety. Barclays and Coventry Building Society are both raising rates, with Barclays moving selected products by up to 0.37%, as swap rates climb on rising oil prices and renewed Middle East tension. When energy markets panic, mortgage pricing follows. It is not personal, it is lenders' arithmetic, and unfortunately it does not care about your remortgage date.

Not everyone is moving the same way. Leeds Building Society are cutting tomorrow, proof that the market is not monolithic and that shopping around has rarely mattered more. The spread between the best and worst rates is widening, which makes good advice more valuable, not less. One lender's bad day is another lender's opportunity, and right now they are not all having the same day.

Swap rates have climbed 40 bps in the last three weeks, which means all lenders are likely to have to price up. Swap rates are rising owing to global political instability and instability right here in the UK, thanks to the Starmer-Burnham handover and whatever is happening in Clacton. We can predict the direction of travel but not how far we'll go or for how long; it is safe to assume that as long as the US is exchanging strikes with Iran, and as long as the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, rates will likely continue creeping up. When it comes to mortgages, it's important to remember that the rate you lock in will be the highest rate you could possibly pay; if rates go down before completion, advisers can always request the lower like-for-like rate instead.