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Bank of England upbeat on unemployment numbers

ended 02. February 2023

The Bank of England has said it expects the recession ahead to be shallower than originally thought and that unemployment will not rise as much as anticipated. It now expects unemployment to peak at 5.3% rather than 6.4%. It is currently 3.7%. We're looking for HRs and recruiters to give their views on this - does what you're seeing on the ground underline what the Bank is saying, or do you think it's being overly optimistic? This story is BREAKING so deadline is ASAP. No need for an essay, just a few lines will do. We will issue your comments to the local and national media today.

4 responses from the Newspage community

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Samuel Mather-Holgate
Independent Financial Adviser at Mather and Murray Financial
Andrew Bailey is so out of touch with reality. He, and most of the monetary policy committee, can’t see how bad things are going to get. Confidence in the economy is rock bottom and this will filter through to much higher unemployment that is being predicted by the Bank of England. They are never close on macro economic predictions, so it’s no wonder their policies do more harm than good.
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Ian Hepworth
Director at Funding Solutions UK Limited
In an academic sense full employment is typically considered to be 4%. That means we have full employment and will continue to have close to that according to these forecasts. Periods of high growth typically follow periods of high unemployment as people return to work to fill jobs that have been created. This leaves us with a conundrum in terms of growth. The options are immigration, upskilling workforces to be more productive and/or investment in innovation.
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Matthew Gardner
Managing Director - Legal and Professional Services Recruitment at Ambition
The Bank of England’s more optimistic message mirrors what we are seeing and expect to see throughout the rest of 2023 in the professional services market. We expect the job market to “normalise” through 2023 and look somewhat similar to pre pandemic 2019 levels. Unemployment levels are expected to remain low and experienced & highly skilled talent pools to remain shallow meaning it will remain challenging for firms to attract and retain talent through 2023 and continue to be a positive job-seekers market.
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Rupert Wallis
Managing Director at Media Contacts Ltd
We have seen very little sign of a recession in recruitment. Vacancy numbers dipped in December as per the REC report on jobs, however what the REC didn't mention is that there is always a seasonal dip in jobs in December. Since then volumes have recovered to normal levels. Interestingly markets that we recruit for that would be vulnerable to a consumer recession such as PR agencies covering travel, hospitality and luxury lifestyle seem busier than ever. In a recession there is also hesitancy with candidates changing jobs, but we have not seen that either.Very much business as usual.