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Mortgage approvals drop in November as Budget takes "the steam out of the market"

ended 03. January 2025

Net mortgage approvals for house purchases decreased by 2,400 to 65,700 in November, but remained above their previous 12-month average of 60,400, according to Bank of England data published today. Likewise, approvals for remortgaging (which only capture remortgaging with a different lender) decreased by 300 to 31,200 in November but remained above their previous 12-month average of 30,000. Net borrowing of mortgage debt by individuals fell by £1.0 billion to £2.5 billion in November, following an increase in net borrowing of £1.0 billion in October. Newspage asked brokers for their views, below.

6 responses from the Newspage community

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The Budget hit borrower confidence based on this evidence. It wasn't an extreme drop-off but it shows the impact on sentiment. Approvals were down but not out. Some support, almost certainly, was provided by would-be buyers trying to get themselves in a position to beat the stamp duty deadline and this was their overriding focus. December, meanwhile, seemed to be unseasonally busy and again changes to stamp duty were the likely driver. If the rate war some are anticipating starts to rage in the first quarter then approval levels may start to rise again.
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The Budget appears to have had an impact, with approvals down slightly, but November overall was still relatively busy in terms of mortgage demand. The momentum from the summer continued, albeit at a slightly slower pace. Things really picked up in December, and the market didn't shut down halfway through the month as it often does, probably due to the looming stamp duty deadline. The phones were still ringing up until Christmas Eve and between Christmas and the New Year.
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November was an average month, possibly due to the Autumn Budget taking the steam out of the market and hitting sentiment. That appears to be reflected in this data. Mortgage rates also edged up slightly, which may have dampened demand. But demand was still there due to the approaching stamp duty deadline. December, perhaps surprisingly, was one of our busiest months of the year. Enquiry levels were strong among home movers and first-time buyers alike, keen to save money on stamp duty. We expect a strong start to the year and for other lenders to follow the likes of Halifax and Leeds in cutting rates. Lenders like Santander will be resetting their targets and Nationwide is approaching its year end so lenders will want to fill their boots with borrowers. The next few months should be a favourable time for anyone looking to buy and we know that demand for property, whatever the economic conditions, tends to remain strong.
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Demand in the mortgage market has been soaring as home buyers race against time. November was one of the busiest months we’ve seen, with demand continuing strong right into December, defying seasonal trends. Even between Christmas and New Year, activity levels were remarkably high. With lenders like Halifax and Leeds cutting rates this week, we expect even more competitive pricing in the first quarter and a robust start to the year. The momentum in the mortgage market shows no signs of slowing.
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November and December weren't really months of note for us, and the Budget may have played a role in that. So far this month, enquiries have been coming in thick and fast, with most looking for remortgages and product transfers. The rush of first-time buyers will probably show itself more in the next couple of weeks as many estate agents are still closed or running on minimum staffing levels, partially stemming the flow of viewings. If, as expected, more lenders follow the path of Leeds and Halifax by dropping some fixed rate deals, it could be an FTB bonanza, however deadlines are incredibly tight to beat the stamp duty jump in time for 30th March.
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Last year was tumultuous to say the least but the next three months should be extremely busy in the mortgage world. With the changes to the Stamp Duty levels coming in April, there will be a clamour of clients looking to complete quickly. Lenders will likely try to attract these borrowers, which should hopefully lead to lots of rate competition. This rate war should be welcome news to purchasers, but also those looking to remortgage or move home, with rates possibly dropping as low as they have been in a few years.