Average petrol prices at the pump are down – how low could they go?

Do not be fooled by a slight reprieve in fuel costs. With Captain Calamity in the White House, anything is possible and despite Marco Rubio declaring all the US goals have been achieved, Iran hold all of Trump’s famous cards. This conflict is nowhere near over, and the possibility of escalation is not just a possibility but a probability. £2 per litre is not off the table, and motorist should buckle up for a bumpy ride.

Petrol prices dipping while oil stays above $100 may seem contradictory, but it's a classic case of market lag. Pump prices reflect wholesale refined fuel costs and retailer margins rather than crude directly, the so-called "rocket and feather" effect, where prices spike instantly on bad news but fall slowly as conditions stabilise. The current dip to 156.82p suggests the risk premium is easing as traders price in a potential pause in the Strait of Hormuz blockade. However, a return to pre-war levels near 140p remains unlikely while Brent stays above $100, with most analysts placing the floor around 150p. Should the conflict escalate or the blockade tighten, prices could surge toward 170p. The Strait carries roughly 20% of global oil, so even with supply physically flowing, traders price in insurance against a sudden shutdown. Recent headlines about a pause offer only temporary relief. The market remain on a knife-edge until a permanent diplomatic resolution is reached.