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Urgent - what's going on with gold?

Journalist: Laura Miller, Freelance

ended 07. April 2026

I'm working on a piece for Professional Adviser about gold's price movement in recent weeks and where it might go. Please share your thoughts.

  • Why, if gold is a safe haven asset, has the price fallen since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran?
  • To what extent is gold still an attractive investment for clients? 
  • How should gold be used in a portfolio right now?
  • What will affect the gold price from here on out, and what direction might it go in?

6 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Paul Denley
CEO at Oakham Wealth Management
Gold has surged in recent years reflecting growing geopolitical uncertainty. However, although the gold price is often associated with fear & risk aversion, it also competes with income. Rising oil prices have rekindled inflation concerns, pushing real yields higher and strengthening the USD. In that environment, a non-yielding asset inevitably loses some of its shine.
There is also a mechanical element. Periods of stress tighten liquidity, and when investors need cash to meet margin calls or rebalance portfolios, they often sell what they can, not necessarily what they want. Gold becomes the market's ATM.
Yet the broader case remains intact. Central banks continue to accumulate reserves, global debt levels are elevated, and geopolitical fault lines show no sign of narrowing. Gold is best understood as portfolio ballast. It rarely drives returns in calm waters, but it often helps in a storm, and with JPMorgan targeting $6,300 per ounce by year end, the storm may not yet have pass
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Tony Redondo
Founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange
Gold is acting as a "release valve" for market stress rather than a direct beneficiary of it. Historic bull runs like the 1970’s regularly saw sharp 10–20% pullbacks before the most significant gains, so the current correction from January's all-time high above $5,300 to below $4,700/oz represents price indigestion, not a broken thesis. The paradox of gold falling amid geopolitical conflict stems from the Dollar's dominance as the primary safe haven, alongside forced institutional liquidations to cover losses elsewhere. Rising oil prices have spiked bond yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Despite this, the structural bull case remains intact with central bank diversification and long-term debt concerns keeping analysts eyeing a return to $5,000 and beyond. Short-term volatility will persist, but gold remains the ultimate tail-risk insurance for any portfolio navigating an increasingly fractured global economy.
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Anita Wright
Chartered Financial Planner at Ribble Wealth Management
The idea that gold ‘should rise’ during geopolitical conflict is too simplistic. Gold is not merely a crisis hedge; it is a barometer of monetary confidence. In the early phase of a geopolitical shock, you often see a dash for liquidity, strength in the dollar and temporary pressure on gold as leveraged positions are unwound. Short-term pullbacks are entirely consistent with a market that has already moved strongly and is consolidating before its next leg higher. Gold still has a clear role, but it needs to be understood properly. It is not there to generate income or track equities; it is there as a form of monetary insurance. In a world where debt levels are elevated and confidence in fiat currencies is increasingly questioned, that role arguably becomes more important, not less. Gold should be used as a diversifier and a hedge against monetary instability. Allocations need to be measured and purposeful rather than reactive to short-term headlines.
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Samuel Mather-Holgate
Managing Director & IFA at Mather and Murray Financial
The recent movements in the price of gold are complex. As a source of caution in an uncertain world, it is understandable that its value went up during Trump's presidency. However, it entered bubble territory through momentum trades and when it came off it's peak many investors took profits causing it to slide back more than in a normal cycle. Trump is still unpredictable so investors may see the upside in the gold metal, but as it is still priced much higher than just one year ago this might be baked it to its current position.
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Nick Cawley
Analyst at Solomon Global
Gold continues to be in recovery mode after the January–March 2026 sharp sell-off. Looking at the weekly gold chart, the 50-day SMA continues to provide robust support, while the strong bounce from the recent $4,100/oz low gives reason to believe that this year's low has already been made.

Inflation will remain a short- to medium-term worry and cannot be ignored. Central banks will start to tighten monetary policy over the coming weeks, but, as long as markets can see that this is a short-term situation, with rates falling at the end of this year onwards, then traditional gold headwinds will be mild.

The next level of importance for gold is $5,000/oz, more as a psychological barrier than a true technical level of resistance. A confirmed break above here over the coming weeks will see gold reset its sights on the end-of-January all-time high.

This time last year, gold was trading just under $3,000/oz.

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Ray Palmer
Director at Suros Capital
Gold hasn’t stopped being a safe haven but it’s just not a panic button you press and watch go up straight away.

Right now, the market’s more worried about fundamentals such as interest rates, cash flow and the dollar than the war itself. When money’s tight, people sell what they can and gold is easy to sell. It doesn’t mean it’s lost its role but more t hats it’s being used as liquidity.

The price of gold doesn’t move neatly with the news! Put simply, Gold often looks disappointing when things are uncertain but functioning. When it really earns its keep is when things are breaking or being fixed with cheap money.

My strategy advice is not to chase it, and don’t expect fireworks every time there’s trouble. Hold a sensible amount, sit on it and let it do it’s job as both a store of wealth and to leverage if necessary.