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UK job market data June 2023

ended 13. June 2023

The latest UK jobs data is just out. Key points below. Any thoughts, whizz them across ASAP. Statement from Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics (ONS), here: “With another rise in employment, the number of people in work overall has gone past its pre-pandemic level for the first time, setting a new record high, as have total hours worked. The biggest driver in recent jobs growth, meanwhile, is health and social care, followed by hospitality. While there has been another drop in the number of people neither working nor looking for work, which is now falling right across the age range, those outside the jobs market due to long-term sickness continues to rise, to a new record. In cash terms, basic pay is now growing at its fastest since current records began, apart from the period when the figures were distorted by the pandemic. However, even so, wage rises continue to lag behind inflation.”

  • The UK employment rate was estimated at 76.0% in February to April 2023, 0.2 percentage points higher than November 2022 to January 2023. The number of people in employment increased to a record high in the latest quarter with increases in both the number of employees and self-employed workers.
  • In March to May 2023, the estimated number of vacancies fell by 79,000 on the quarter to 1,051,000. Vacancies fell on the quarter for the 11th consecutive period and reflect uncertainty across industries, as survey respondents continue to cite economic pressures as a factor in holding back on recruitment.
  • The more timely estimate of payrolled employees for May 2023 shows a monthly increase, up 23,000 on the revised April 2023 figures, to 30.0 million. The May 2023 estimate should be treated as a provisional estimate and is likely to be revised when more data are received next month.
  • The unemployment rate for February to April 2023 increased by 0.1 percentage points on the quarter to 3.8%. The increase in unemployment was driven by people unemployed for up to 12 months.
  • The economic inactivity rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points on the quarter, to 21.0% in February to April 2023. Looking at economic inactivity by reason, the quarterly decrease was largely driven by those inactive for other reasons and those looking after family or home. Meanwhile, those inactive because of long-term sickness increased to a record high.
  • Growth in average total pay (including bonuses) was 6.5% and growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 7.2% among employees in February to April 2023. For regular pay, this is the largest growth rate seen outside of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
  • In real terms (adjusted for inflation), growth in total and regular pay fell on the year in February to April 2023, by 2.0% for total pay and by 1.3% for regular pay.
  • In March 2023, workforce jobs rose by a record 395,000 on the quarter to a new record high of 36.8 million, with 8 of the 20 industry sectors at record high levels.

 

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Net immigration figures out a couple of weeks ago showed a 600,000+ increase to the population, so it’s not a shock to see the number of people in work at record levels, as so is our population. Most of these migrants have come to work in the NHS and social care and this is reflected in the figures. More worrying for the government will be the number of people out of the jobs market due to long-term illness. We expect this to be caused by Covid related complications, but as the NHS is on its knees since the pandemic it could be a myriad of reasons. Once again it’s showing the government is turning our economy into a slow growth, low wage economy. Not exactly the Singapore of Europe that was promised post-Brexit.