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UK GDP data due out tomorrow, 31 March. What's your forecast?

ended 30. March 2026

Tomorrow, Tuesday, 31 March 2026, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the final estimate for Q4 2025 GDP.

While this is technically "looking back" at the end of last year, it is a critical data point because it sets the baseline for 2026 growth, which has recently been clouded by a spike in global energy prices.

In the preliminary data, the Services sector—which makes up 80% of the UK economy—recorded 0.0% growth. In addition, the OECD recently downgraded the UK’s 2026 growth forecast to 0.7%

  • Is the "Technical Zero" in Services a Warning for 2026?
  • Will tomorrow’s date confirm the OECD’s gloomy forecast?
  • What are the implications for British businesses, borrowers and savers in 2026?

2 responses from the Newspage community

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Tony Redondo
Founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange
Tomorrow’s ONS release is a health check for a stalled UK economy. The final Q4 2025 GDP estimate is expected to confirm a stagnant 0.1% quarterly expansion; a figure viewed as a statistical rounding error rather than a recovery. With the vital services sector flatlining and business investment collapsing, the data reveals a zombified core engine amid a private sector capital strike. Any meagre growth was likely fuelled by households "burning the furniture", depleting a thinning savings buffer to maintain spending. This leaves the UK structurally vulnerable to a "Cost of Living 2.0" crisis as Middle East tensions drive inflation back toward 4%. These figures will likely validate the OECD’s gloomy 2026 growth downgrade to 0.7%, and even this may prove optimistic. For businesses, rising input costs meet weak demand. For borrowers, fixed mortgage rates above 5% have returned, with rate hikes a genuine risk. Savers enjoy temporarily elevated rates, but real returns are already eroding.
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Ishbir Rakhra
Director at Matchbox Finance Limited
While disruption has been more visible in the residential mortgage market, the commercial sector has remained relatively stable. However, this is likely due to a lag effect rather than resilience, with changes in residential lending typically feeding through over time. As a result, some adjustment in pricing and lender appetite is still expected.

High street lenders have shown limited movement on pricing for new commercial deals, indicating a cautious but steady approach. In contrast, challenger banks have increased activity, particularly in commercial real estate, where there has been a noticeable uplift in product availability and appetite.

Conditions also vary by sector. Healthcare has remained relatively stable, supported by consistent demand and lender confidence, while retail continues to face greater pressure. The owner-occupier market has seen less variation overall, though this may change if economic conditions weaken.