Politics

Copy article

Trump pauses Ukraine military aid: "we are at the most dangerous point in global politics since the Cuban missile crisis"

ended 04. March 2025

Trump has paused all US military aid to Ukraine and may even cut back on intelligence sharing with the Zelensky government. What impact could this have on markets, currency markets and US/EU relations? Any thoughts, send them across.

4 responses from the Newspage community

Copy all

Star Quote
Copy

Editor
Tony Redondo
Founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange
Trump’s pause on US military aid to Ukraine, possibly with less intelligence sharing, will jolt both the financial markets and US/EU ties. Investors usually seek safe-haven assets like Treasuries, gold, the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen while the stock, commodity and crypto markets may have a wobble. The US dollar is usually the ultimate safe haven currency but, on this occasion, because of Trump’s trade tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, it too may continue to sell off. The Euro will remain under pressure. Energy prices could spike if Russia flexes its gas leverage. US/EU relations will remain strained as Europe scrambles to fill the aid gap, risking NATO rifts if Trump pushes a minerals deal over solidarity. The EU is now next in the firing line of Trump’s trade tariffs. Markets hate this kind of brinksmanship so expect choppy trading conditions. Time will tell if this is a peace play or a bigger mess brewing.
Star Quote
Copy

Keith Budden
Managing Director at Ensurety
The more I see of Trump's actions, the more I seriously wonder what his long term agenda is, and if he is a Russian plant? Could he be the most dangerous political figure the world has seen since 1945? One thing is for sure, he is showing all the signs of a narcisstic bully. He couldn't bully Zelensky into submission at the White House on Friday, so now he's using the one weapon (no pun intended) he thinks he holds. His thinking? If he withdraws military aid, Zelensky will have to come begging on bended knee, and will have to agree to Trump and Putin 'negotiating' a settlement with no input from Ukraine or the EU. I believe we really are at the most dangerous point in global politics since the Cuban missile crisis. Combine this with Trump tarriffs and the dive in stock markets, the possible collapse of NATO as we know it, and we have the spectre of the future of the world in the hands of three megalomaniac politicians, Trump, Putin and Xi Jinping.
Copy

Editor
Jamie Elvin
Director at Strive Mortgages
Trump’s decision to pause military aid to Ukraine and potentially scale back intelligence sharing could send ripples through global markets. Expect a stronger dollar as risk aversion drives demand for safe-haven assets, while the euro may weaken on heightened European security concerns. Defense stocks could see volatility, while energy markets react to potential instability. Politically, US-EU relations will likely strain further, as Europe faces increased pressure to fill the gap left by Washington.
Copy

Premium
David Belle
Founder and Trader at Fink Money
It could be prudent to question why they are going to such an extent of cutting back here. I am unsure if the answer is as simple as: 'Trump is bad and pro Putin.' Ukraine is still extremely high up on the corruption ranking and since its independence in 1991 has had endemic corruption issues. In 2015, the Guardian named it the most corrupt nation in Europe. The fact Trump wants to now prevent intelligence sharing is similarly an odd one too. £100bn+ later and the front line has not changed, even though the Russian economy has been decimated with many hundreds of thousands of soldiers lost. Why not? I wrote the Russian economy cannot last another 18 months, back in October: https://www.fink.money/p/russia-is-on-the-brink-of-crisis, so there is the potential to wait it out and let them collapse too -- but what true benefit would this provide?