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Retail sales data Oct 22

ended 21. October 2022

The latest retail sales data just came out. Key points below. Any thoughts, add them ASAP. 

  • Retail sales volumes fell by 1.4% in September 2022; making them 1.3% below pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) February 2020 levels.
  • While retailers continue to mention the effect of rising prices and the cost of living on sales volumes, data for September 2022 are also affected by the bank holiday for the State Funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, when many retailers closed.
  • In the three months to September 2022, sales volumes fell by 2.0% when compared with the previous three months; this continues the downward trend seen since summer 2021.
  • Food store sales volumes fell by 1.8% in September 2022, which leaves them 3.2% below their pre-coronavirus levels in February 2020.
  • Non-store retailing (predominantly online retailers) sales volumes fell by 3.0% in September 2022; despite this fall, sales volumes were 18.0% above their February 2020 levels.
  • Non-food stores sales volumes fell by 0.6% in September 2022 and are 2.7% below February 2020 levels.
  • The proportion of retail sales taking place online was 26.4% in September 2022; this has remained at a broadly consistent level since May 2022. 

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Samuel Mather-Holgate
Independent Financial Adviser at Mather and Murray Financial
The only surprise with these figures is that they aren’t worse. Confidence of the UK consumer is at a low no seen for 15 years. Stock markets are down, the currency is down, inflation in sky high and mortgage interest rates are still rising. With this combination of events, consumer spending on discretionary items are going to take a hit. Any cyclical companies are being decimated on the financial bourses and I expect retail stocks to fall further, in a relatively quick time. It won’t be long until we are facing a technical recession although most people would agree that we are already in the start of one. The government has a role of instilling confidence in consumers with a sound fiscal policy at times of uncertainty. With these clowns running the country tickets to the circus are free.