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ONS jobs data: "We're seeing a gradual cooling in the UK labour market"

ended 13. August 2024

The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK Labour Market data has been published this morning. Selected headline findings below. Newspage asked HRs, recruiters and employment experts for their views, bottom. They will keep appearing until 09:00.

  • The estimated number of vacancies in the UK in May to July 2024 was 884,000, a decrease of 26,000 or 2.8% from February to April 2024.
  • Vacancy numbers decreased on the quarter for the 25th consecutive period in May to July 2024, with vacancies decreasing in 10 of the 18 industry sectors.
  • In May to July 2024, total estimated vacancies were down by 141,000 (13.7%) from the level of a year ago, although they remained 88,000 (11.0%) above their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic January to March 2020 levels.
  • The UK unemployment rate for April to June 2024 (4.2%) is below estimates of a year ago (April to June 2023), and decreased in the latest quarter.
  • The UK economic inactivity rate for April to June 2024 (22.2%) is above estimates of a year ago (April to June 2023), but is largely unchanged in the latest quarter.
  • Annual growth in employees' average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) was 5.4%; growth was last lower than this in May to July 2022, when it was 5.2%.
  • Early estimates for July 2024 indicate that the number of payrolled employees rose by 0.8% compared with July 2023, a rise of 252,000 employees.
  • Payrolled employment increased by 24,000 employees (0.1%) in July 2024 when compared with June 2024

2 responses from the Newspage community

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Erefa Coker FCIPD
Founder at IMÒ INTERNS
Based on our experience in the recruitment sector, we're seeing a gradual cooling in the UK labour market, as reflected in the falling number of vacancies. However, there are some nuanced trends. While vacancy numbers are declining overall, we're still observing strong demand in certain sectors, particularly for specialised technical roles. A rise in unemployment was expected given the current economic headwinds so for it to have fallen is a positive. Regarding labour disputes, the number of working days lost could potentially increase in the short term as workers and employers navigate inflation pressures. However, we expect this to moderate as wage growth and inflation start to align more closely. Overall, we predict a cautious but resilient labour market for the remainder of 2024, with opportunities still present for both employers and job seekers who can adapt to changing economic conditions.
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Suzanne Noble
Co-Director at Startup School for Seniors
Despite strong commitments from both the previous and current governments to support over-50s returning to the workforce, we are seeing more and more individuals in this age group struggling to secure employment. Notably, a growing number of our participants are older men who have been made redundant, which suggests that employers may still be favoring younger, less costly workers over long-term employees. It's also clear that the flexibility often needed by older workers, particularly those with caregiving responsibilities, remains largely unavailable in the job market.