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ONS Property Transactions Data - Dec 22

ended 24. January 2023

At 09:30, HMRC is publishing data about the number of completed property transactions in December 2022. This data may start to show a slight decrease in transaction levels following the mini-Budget and higher interest rates, but it's likely next month's data will see transaction levels drop materially. Few Qs for you.

  • How is the property market today compared to six months ago (or so) when the transactions that completed in December will have started?
  • January seems to have started on a more positive note than many thought, as fixed rates edge down and sentiment appears to be holding up - is this what you're seeing?
  • What's going to happen to transaction levels — and average property prices — in 2023?

5 responses from the Newspage community

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Justin Moy
Managing Director at EHF Mortgages
There is a greater acceptance among the public that property prices in 2023 will stagnate or reduce, and that mortgage rates will hover around where they are for the medium term. Therefore, home movers are adjusting their plans accordingly, but still want to become property owners. The alternative of private renting costs just as much as a mortgage payment, so if the deposit can be sourced, then there will continue to be a good level of transactions this year. Not a record year, but it will still be busy enough.
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Dean Esnard
Director at Magni Finance
Transaction levels remain far below what we are used to but there is growing optimism in the air. Lenders' rates have been coming down almost as quickly as they increased so it feels like the worst is over. Despite inflation dropping slightly, the base rate is likely to rise again next month but lenders will have already priced this into current fixed rates, which are nearing the 4% mark. These rates will keep the property market afloat and, with pent-up demand, I wouldn’t be surprised if house prices started to increase again.
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Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
While the mortgage and housing market fundamentals have changed radically over the past six months, we're still seeing reasonable levels of buyer interest so far in January. Some sellers still have their heads stuck in the sand and are holding out for unrealistic 'top dollar' prices. Those vendors won't be able to sell unless they get very lucky or have an exceptional property. My prediction is a 15%-20% fall in house prices this year, with a peak to trough decrease of around 30%.
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Amit Patel
Adviser at Trinity Finance
Fixed rates have reduced since the beginning of the year but are nowhere near the mark they were before the ill-judged mini-Budget. I expect the housing market to pick up over the coming months and deliver opportunities for savvy buyers and investors. I expect prices will dip by around 8% overall in 2023. No doubt the Bank of England will increase the base rate again at the next MPC meeting to curb inflation, but it's something that I don't agree with.
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Zaid Patel
Director at Highcastle Estates
January has been an interesting month so far. First week was fairly quiet, then all of a sudden, plenty of offers came in, and those offers were being accepted. They were all accepted around 5-10% below the asking price. The market was headed towards a correction, interest rates have increased and buyers and vendors have accepted this.