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Next week's inflation figures

Journalist: Sarah O'Grady, The Daily Express

ended 13. October 2022

Next Wednesday 19th, the latest inflation figures - for September - are due out. I'm looking for forecasts of the figure we're likely to get and comments relating to the impact on pensions next year. The September CPI inflation figure is used to uprate the triple lock and other benefits from the following April. It is currently 9.9%. The triple lock was suspended for 22/23 tax year because of skewed wage inflation which would have cost taxpayers £3bn to match.

4 responses from the Newspage community

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Samuel Mather-Holgate
Independent Financial Adviser at Mather and Murray Financial
I expect inflation to have retreated very slightly but still be at eye-watering levels, nesting in double figures. The government changed the rules when increases to average earnings were too high for them, and I expect them to do the same now inflation is the highest of the triple lock. They will break a manifesto commitment and that will cause further calls for a General Election as these policies have no mandate. Truth is, if Truss wants to deliver tax cuts on the scale she has committed, the DWP is the largest department and has to shoulder the biggest cuts.
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Scott Gallacher
Director at Rowley Turton
I think we're about to hit peak inflation, and I suspect this September's figure will be around 11%. The good news is thereafter, inflation should fall back as many of the drivers, high oil prices, shipping costs, etc. have already peaked and started to fall. The bad news is that wages haven't kept pace with that inflation, and many workers, especially in the public sector, risk being locked into a real-term wage cut which will impact them not only this year but for many years to come. And for anyone on benefits they will be desperately hoping that Lis Truss doesn't look to use a below inflation benefit rise as a way of balancing the books.
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Adam Walkom
Co-founder at Permanent Wealth Partners
We would all like to believe inflation is coming down, but just like the Red Queen in Alice in Wonderland, to do that we may have to believe in six impossible things before breakfast. Inflation rates just ticked back slightly higher in the U.S. this month, so it is hard to see them coming down here. The Treasury was correct to suspend the triple lock following coming out of lockdown, because it was a statistical anomaly, but it is much harder to justify doing it this year with all prices rising. And clearly, the Bank of England is helping nobody at the moment with any of its actions.
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Steve Perera
Chartered Financial Planner at Britannic Place Financial Management Limited
The current rate of inflation is 9.9% and the Bank of England has forecast that this is going to peak at 11% in October, remaining at over 10% for a few months before starting to come down. I think that this makes sense as the current price rises, mainly caused by rising energy prices, will already have been 'baked in' and are, hopefully, unlikely to continue increasing at the same rate going forward. The Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) are due to announce the uprating of State Pensions next month and this will be based on the inflation figures released this month. The new minister for pensions and growth, Alex Burghart, recently explained that the so-called Triple Lock meant that the full yearly amount of the State Pension had increased, since 2010, by more than if it had been uprated purely by prices or earnings individually. He also said that the Government has committed to implementing the Triple Lock for the remainder of the Parliament. The New Chancellor is now coming under pressure to confirm once again that the Triple Lock will be reinstated. However, with the tax reductions introduced by the mini-budget and the recent pledge by the Prime Minister not to cut Government spending together with the potential to save billions by suspending the Triple Lock for a second year, this may prove a very difficult square to circle.