Nationwide June 23 house price index

There's no doubt that the UK property market is experiencing some serious turbulence following 13 base rate rises, with mortgage rates soaring and house prices hanging in the balance. Buyer and seller reactions during June have remained mixed, but overall, caution appears to be the watchword. We have decided to use this as a buying opportunity, taking into account the historical trends in the property market, and the macro factors still being in favour. For start, the ongoing lack of housing supply and new construction projects will provide support to house prices in the turbulent second half of 2023. Affordability, influenced by factors such as wage growth and inflation, is a crucial consideration, too. For the first time since 2008, the economy is adapting to drastically new macro conditions, and the interplay of significantly higher interest rates, supply shortages and affordability issues are set to shape the market for the rest of this year and well into next.

Unsurprisingly, given the recent market turmoil and increases in the cost of borrowing, June has seen fewer new buyer inquiries than May. But there's a stampede to remortgage before rates go even higher. As most lenders' mortgage offers are valid for six months, it makes sense to get a new deal now if your current one expires before the end of the year. As for house prices, I expect steep falls over the next 12 months, with further reductions well into 2025. Living standards are declining rapidly, as inflation outstrips wages, whilst an ever-increasing proportion of people's take-home pay is spent servicing the mortgage or rent. Quite frankly, this is a disaster in the making that is going to lead to real hardship and increased homelessness over the next year or two.

In Scotland, the signs are appearing that the slower housing market and associated flattening of prices seen in other parts of the UK, may finally be starting to get its claws embedded into the Scottish market as well. The increase in prominence of mainstream media reporting around increased rates and overall volatility in the mortgage market has inevitably resulted in some hesitancy and increased concern from those looking to purchase, but in general first-time buyers remain active and, beyond the impact on affordability, appear largely unaffected by negative sentiment or the scars that may itch on existing homeowners and mortgage holders. Stress testing, increased rates and overbearing regulation continue to strangle landlords and so buy-to-let purchases are largely extinct. Expectation and hope is for a degree of calmness rate-wise over the summer but the fate of the market for the rest of 2023 will hang squarely on inflation showing some worthwhile positive movement.

June has actually been our busiest mortgage month of the year. Purchases have been pretty bouyant whilst remortgage business is brisk. As ever life goes on and people will continue to move house for all the reasons they always do but we've definitely noticed the value of a good estate agent when it comes to getting a house sold and completed for a price you're happy with. It's no good just popping it on Rightmove for cheap and hoping for the best as we move to a bit more of a buyers market.