Nationwide house prices are out - comment needed

This is the first early sign of impending house price falls in my view. We will probably be in recession by the autumn, mortgage rates are likely to be much higher, and the economic outlook, with another 25% energy price hike looming, could be far worse. There's been a shortage of property for sale over the winter months, and prices are now coming off overinflated highs, stoked by Rishi Sunak's disastrous decision to provide a stamp duty holiday.

Let's be honest, growth slowing from 14 to 12% is still an insane rate of growth. What we may see is some of the lunacy around house price rises ease off but in a broker system where demand outstrips supply and no one seems to have a plan to fix it, house prices can only go one way in the long run.

The housing market has been running like Usain Bolt being chased by a pack of rabid dogs for the past couple of years, but at some point, it is going to have to pause and catch its breath, maybe this is the start of that? Whilst the long-term massive undersupply of housing stock is always going to mean the property market is an economic law-unto-itself that market needs two things to drive it; public confidence and availablity of mortgage funds. Whilst there is currently no shortage of the latter the former is being put under pressure - interest rate rises, energy price rises, tax rises, food price rises, fuel price rises, every conceivable area of daily life is seeing prices rise. That's going to give even the most bullish of house buyers pause for thought.

House price growth going from 14% to 12% is like slowing down 140mph to 120mph on the motorway. Sure it's a little more manageable but if there's a crash it's still going to be carnage. Now that mortgage lenders are tightening up affordability requirements this will reduce the supply of money available for people to buy houses which could be the biggest factor in dampening fun away house price growth. In the last year lenders had the opposite view offering some of the highest borrowing multiples since affordability reforms came in after the Great Recession. Allow people to borrow more money, they'll pay more for houses. Reduce what they can borrow, maximum bids are reduced.