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May GDP due in latest UK economic health check

ended 09. July 2025

This week, the latest snapshot of the UK economy is being published - for May 2025. In April, the economy contracted by 0.3% in a serious blow to Labour. Many blamed Employers' NI hikes, a weakening labour market, a general deterioration in consumer sentiment amid a sticky inflation environment and wider geopolitical and tariff uncertainty. Whatever the root causes, we're keen to get your views on how your business, charity or organisation is faring in the current climate. What are the key challenges you're facing and what could help solve them? How has business been in the first half of 2025 and how upbeat are you feeling about the second half? We'll be issuing your views and insights to all national, local and relevant trade media when the data drops.

On a separate note, we now have over 50 Contributing Editors who are creating News Alerts themselves on stories they believe matter, direct from their Newspage — and are guaranteed to feature in them once we've put them on the wires. If you'd like to try out this new subscription for a month for 50% off,  go to the settings section of your Newspage and use the discount code CIJENBHJ - and join our Editors News Desk where you can liaise with experienced journalists and other Editors in real time. You won't look back.

5 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Tony Redondo
Founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange
The UK GDP data for May will provide a critical update on the UK economy’s health following April’s 0.3% contraction. This contraction, the steepest monthly decline since October 2023, was driven by the ‘Awful April’ tax and minimum wage rises and a record drop in exports to the US due to Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement. Add in factors like rising energy and council tax bills, a weakening labour market, and geopolitical uncertainties and it left UK businesses facing a perfect storm. The outlook for the second half is resigned to yet more tax rises come October’s budget with possible relief from BoE rate cuts and the US-UK trade deal which could shield this country from the worst of the end of the 90-day tariff reprieve on 9 July.

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Rob Peters
Principal at Simple Fast Mortgage
Business has been patchy this year. Some sectors are thriving, while others are on life support.

Employers’ NI hikes, stubbornly high costs, and fragile consumer confidence are squeezing some businesses to breaking point. Tax reform and genuine growth policies are needed.

In mortgages, approvals have picked up, but buyers remain cautious. The economy desperately needs stability, clear fiscal policy, and rate cuts to unlock confidence and spending power in the months ahead.
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Samuel Mather-Holgate
Managing Director & IFA at Mather and Murray Financial
Labour have made some big, bold and bad decisions since starting their administration, the one with most impact being the mega-hike to employer’s national insurance. This has strangled businesses appetite to employ more staff which is what is needed to significantly grow the economy. Of course, taxes need to be increased somewhere, but targeting the engine room of the economy just means no speed can be achieved. There is no chance that these taxes will be reversed, and more are now needed since proposed changed to welfare have been torpedoed. Reeves and Starmer need to focus on those with, genuinely, the broadest shoulders and look at a wealth tax or an increase to income tax to those earning over £250,000 per year.
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Kundan Bhaduri
Entrepreneur, Investor and Landlord at The Kushman Group
If April’s GDP contraction was a “blip,” then May’s figures could prove it's more of a trend. For those of us in the real economy, particularly in property and development, the signals are clear: Labour's rise in Employers’ National Insurance has kneecapped hiring, inflation remains as sticky as Westminster's green subsidies, and consumer confidence is flat as a pancake.

Business in the first half of 2025 has felt like trench warfare, moving forward inches at a time, while policymakers lob regulations from the safety of Whitehall. Profit margins are being eaten from both ends: costs up, demand cautious, and growth throttled by taxes that punish success. The government says it wants growth, but forgets that over-regulated, over-taxed economies are only likely to shrink.

The second half of the year will depend on whether the Treasury remembers that private enterprise, not public pronouncements pays the bills.
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Debbie Porter
Managing Director at Destination Digital Marketing
Business has been good for us in the first half of the year, but we are not complacent. We had a couple of recession-proof projects to deliver - no matter what was happening in the economy, they needed delivering. This has been a boost for our small business at a time we see peers struggling. For the first time in years, employers appear to have more control in the jobs market due to lay offs and insolvencies. So we know it’s tough out there as these two projects come to a close. The second half of 2025 feels like we should send up the war-cry of ‘Once more unto the breach! ‘