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LF comments on house price growth disparity and future predictions for I Paper

Journalist: Laura Purkess, Freelance

ended 13. July 2026

Hiya, I'm writing an article for The i Paper on how much property values have grown across the country, looking at a £300,000 investment into property and the average property growth over time in regions across the UK / how much those properties would be worth now on average. Using UK house price data index to look at percentage increases by region and applying that to a £300k investment. In Northern Ireland for example a £300k home bought in April 2016 would be on average worth £505k now, but in London a £300k property investment would only have made around £53,000.

LF comments on: 

  • Why is there such disparity of house price growth around the UK, why areas like NI, Wales and North West saw much faster growth than the South East / London, what types of properties a £300k investment would have bought in each area and if that's linked to the growth / stagnation, etc
  • What do you think the outlook is for those areas going foward? What areas are likely to boom, what could stagnate over next decade, and why? Doesn't have to be as broad as ‘wales’ and ‘north west’, I'm thinking even if there's a city or area of a county that has a reason to maybe boom that would be interesting to explore.

Thanks!

6 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Craig Fish
Director at Lodestone Mortgages
That gap between Northern Ireland and London tells you everything about how differently the UK property market actually works depending on where you're standing. Northern Ireland was starting from a much lower price point back in 2016, so there was far more room for values to climb. London was already priced at the top of the market, so there was nowhere left to go.It also comes down to what £300k actually buys you. In London that's a flat, in NI it could be a family home with land attached, and family homes in undervalued areas are exactly what tends to see the strongest growth.Going forward I'd be watching commuter towns with new transport links and cities benefiting from regeneration investment, rather than whole regions. Growth is becoming more about specific postcodes than broad areas.The next decade of property growth won't be won by the areas that are already expensive, it'll be won by the areas that still have room to catch up.
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Tracey Dixon
Buy-to-Let Mortgage Specialist & Owner at Pure Mortgage and Protection
The next decade won't be won by chasing the hottest region – it'll be won by choosing the right town. London's slower growth isn't a surprise. Prices were already at a premium, while areas in Wales, the North West and Northern Ireland have benefited from greater affordability, regeneration and stronger value for money. As a buy-to-let mortgage broker, I'm seeing investors become far more selective. They're looking beyond headline house price growth and focusing on locations with sustainable rental demand, strong employment and infrastructure investment. In today's market, cash flow is just as important as capital growth. The biggest opportunities are likely to come from well-connected commuter towns and cities where there is still room for prices and rents to grow, rather than simply following regional trends.
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Stephen Perkins
Managing Director at Yellow Brick Mortgages
One of the biggest mistakes people make is assuming the next decade will look like the last one. Property markets are a bit like looking in the rear-view mirror – the best performing regions over the past ten years seem obvious today, but they rarely looked obvious at the time.

Rather than chasing yesterday's hotspots, buyers,
homeowners and investors should focus on the fundamentals that tend to drive long-term house price growth: strong local employment, good transport links, investment in infrastructure, attractive schools and universities, and a shortage of homes relative to demand. Those factors are far more reliable indicators of future performance than simply looking at which region topped the league table over the last decade.
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Harvey Dhillon
Founder & CEO at Zmartly
Two buyers each put £300,000 into property in April 2016. One chose Northern Ireland, one chose London. Ten years on, the results look nothing alike.
Over time, house prices tend to track what local buyers can borrow on local wages. Back in 2016, Northern Ireland was still recovering from a crash that had halved prices from a 2007 peak it has yet to regain. Prices there had a long way to climb. London was already the least affordable region, so there was little room left.
ONS figures for 2025 put London homes at 10.6 times median full-time earnings. In the North East the figure is 5.0. Where prices sit low against local pay, and there are real jobs behind them, there is headroom. Where they sit near the ceiling, you need rising wages or cheaper borrowing just to stand still.
So if you are weighing up where to buy, look at the ratio of price to local pay. A postcode's reputation tells you far less. Check what a local wage can borrow there first.
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Rupert Collingwood
Founder at The London Broker
Even in 2016 a £300,000 investment in London would have bought you something quite modest, anything from a Studio through to perhaps a 2 bedroom flat if you were lucky in zone 3 or beyond.
Subsequent to 2016 prices for these properties have struggled, a number of factors have contributed to this, but most notably the SDLT applicable for additional property premium (3% now 5%) has had the most impact, as it removed a sizeable section of the market, namely Landlords, who were hardest hit by this additional tax.
Beyond this and following on from Covid, smaller properties, which are typically leasehold, attract service charges & may well not come with private outside space have also struggled, as buyers looked for larger homes further afield.
What this means for many, is that growth in this sector has been anaemic & what growth might have materialised pre 2022 may well have been eroded to zero or worse in some cases, particularly in the new homes sector.
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Paul Denley
CEO at Oakham Wealth Management
London's problem is simple: prices ran so far ahead of earnings that by 2016 they were already hitting the limits of affordability. The higher prices rise, the greater the resistance: stamp duty becomes more punitive, deposits harder to raise and higher mortgage rates more painful. London has also seen weaker demand from overseas buyers, while tax and regulatory changes have made property far less attractive to landlords.

Meanwhile, £300,000 could buy a one bed flat in London but a handsome family home in Belfast or Bolton - and family homes are what people increasingly wanted, especially post pandemic. Add hybrid working, and demand shifted towards where the value was.

Looking ahead, follow the infrastructure and the jobs. Manchester and Leeds have genuine economic momentum, while Belfast benefits from its unique post Brexit position. Property is intensely local - the averages conceal as much as they reveal.