Copy article

Land Registry March 2023 HPI

ended 23. May 2023

On Wednesday morning at 09:30, the Land Registry is publishing its latest house price index, which is based on completed sales. If you'd like to see your views on the property market in the local, national and trade media, please answer the following questions:

  • During 2023 to date, has the property market held up better than you thought following the chaos wreaked by the mini-Budget?
  • The number of mortgage approvals rose noticeably in March, according to the Bank of England. Is this a sign confidence among buyers is returning and that they have adjusted to the new rate environment?
  • Is it still a buyers' market or is the property market starting to favour sellers again given mortgage rates have come down from their post-mini-Budget highs and the economy and jobs market are holding up better than expected?
  • Do you see average values rising, falling or flatlining during the rest of the year - and why?
  • Data out last week from UK Finance shows that the number of repossessions during Q1 23 was 50% higher than Q4 22. Do you expect this trend to continue as people come off ultra-low fixed rates and suffer payment shock? If so, how could this impact house prices?

Any other thoughts, trends or insights, jot them down.

3 responses from the Newspage community

Copy all

Star Quote
Copy

Matt Baldock
Director at Charles David Casson
The sales market has held up far better than most predicted at the tail end of last year following the havoc wreaked by the mini-Budget. Buyers have now accepted current mortgage rates as the new norm, much like we all have with petrol prices. At first, you complain and stall but ultimately you adapt and there is always a real desire in this country to own a home. For the first time in a very long time, it's about as even a market as you can get, namely neither a buyers' nor a sellers' market. It will eventually tip one way or the other but for now buyers don't feel they are overpaying and sellers, while realising prices aren't racing away anymore, are not underselling. The fact that inflation is now back in single digits could also boost property market sentiment, especially if it continues to fall. Overall, I see stability for the year, in house prices, mortgage rates and buyer demand, and after the past few years the market certainly needs a period of stability.
Copy

Editor
Samuel Mather-Holgate
Independent Financial Adviser at Mather and Murray Financial
Despite homeowners wanting more for their properties, as listing prices rose this month, Land registry data will show a further slowing in the property market in terms of transaction levels compared to 12 months ago and prices, as confidence is sucked from the market every time the governor of the Bank of England opens his mouth. However, inflation and interest rates have peaked, so after a lag time of 3-4 months house prices should start seeing a rebound.
Copy

Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
I'd describe the property market as limping along. That said, house prices haven't, at this point, fallen as sharply as I expected.

There are diametrically opposing forces competing in a push-pull affect on prices. Much higher mortgage rates, negative real wage growth and a cost of living crisis on the one hand, and an expanding population and an economy performing better than expected on the other. Sky-righ rents and 100% mortgages are also incentivising property purchases.

House prices have a lot further to fall in my opinion, possibly 15% or more. But I think it will be a slow drift downward over this year and next. Increasing repossessions and forced sales from those unable to afford the more than doubling in their interest rate when remortgaging will help drive prices lower.