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Land Registry HPI October 2022

ended 14. December 2022

Tomorrow (Wednesday) morning at 09:30, the Land Registry is publishing its October house price index. As this data is based on completed sales, it is unlikely to reflect the turbulence of recent months. Either way, a few generic Qs for you to answer. We will issue your responses to the local and national media tomorrow morning.

  • How different is the property market today compared to the property market in mid-September before the catastrophic mini-Budget? 
  • On Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by 0.5%. What impact will this have on the property market?
  • What do you expect to happen to house prices in 2023 overall, and why?
  • How is the property market in your local area?

5 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Samuel Mather-Holgate
Independent Financial Adviser at Mather and Murray Financial
We won’t see any useful data from these figures and conveyancers push through sales before the new year. Over the coming months we will see that property transactions are more uncommon than an ambulance turning up when you need one.

The Bank of England are killing off what confidence was left with further interest rate hikes, and they won’t be reducing these rate until late Spring.

It’s going to be a rough few months for the housing market, but for those who are brave there will be some stellar bargains to pick up next year.
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Editor
Justin Moy
Managing Director at EHF Mortgages
Any increase in the Bank of England Base Rate this week is unlikely to make a significant difference to the property market, as a lot of the damage has already happened over the last few months. Fixed rates have stabilised, which is still the overwhelming choice for mortgage borrowers, so a base rate change will have a limited impact on the majority.

There will be plenty of First Time Buyers and Homemovers that will postpone or defer the opportunity to move given the current level of mortgage rates. This will have an obvious knock-on effect on the market, with prices reduced to shift property stock. But with plenty of demand and a continued short supply of property, I would imagine prices will adjust to pre-covid values.


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Mike Staton
Director at Staton Mortgages
The property market appears to have broken up for Christmas, I can’t remember a December being this quiet, however there is more at play here than an economic crisis, the World Cup and cost of living crisis, along with Christmas have all contributed to an extremely slow December, but I do expect the industry to pick up in the new year. I predict only a small increase of 0.25% from the BOE this month will give confidence back to lenders who will all be hoping to start 2023 with a bang.
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Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
The mini-budget fiasco was really the tipping point for when it became obvious the mortgage market had fundamentally changed and property prices were likely to fall significantly.

The land registry figures are a lagging indicator and I expect it will be February or March before we see the true extent of recent house price falls. But even if the Bank of England base rate goes no higher than 4 per cent, a 15-20% drop in property values next year is quite likely in my opinion.
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Gary Boakes
Director at Verve Financial
Even though lenders have already repriced with the expected base rate rise in mind, the general public are just going to see another base rate rise in the papers and with Xmas coming will just slow the market until middle of January. What is not known is whether the recent rate rate reductions will continue or whether they are exactly where rates should be with a 3%- 3.5% base rate, meaning the 2nd February meeting and how lenders react will have a huge impact on Q1 sales.