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"We are at the top for gold"

Journalist: David Belle, Newspage

ended 13. May 2025

Gold has had an extraordinary rally over the past few months against a backdrop of inflation, geopolitical tensions and the Trump trade war. Experts are divided as to whether we are now at the peak or if the yellow metal could hit $4000.

One trader, David Belle, Founder of Fink Money, claims “we are at the top for gold” and that “a trade deal being struck should send gold tumbling pretty hard”.

But Anita Wright, Chartered Financial Planner at Bolton James, believes a $4000 gold price is still possible: “Could gold hit $4,000? If real rates stay negative, inflation persists and geopolitical tensions deepen, it is plausible. Gold is rallying on structural shifts in global finance. Corrections are likely, and volatility is inherent, but the underlying bid from institutional buyers remains solid.”

Views from eight financial experts below.

8 responses from the Newspage community

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Anita Wright
Chartered Financial Planner at Ribble Wealth Management
While official inflation appears controlled, alternative data suggests it's still significantly elevated—eroding fiat currency value and increasing gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. With U.S. debt exceeding $37 trillion and interest burdens mounting, confidence in fiat systems is weakening. Gold, a tier-one asset needing no counterparty backing, is increasingly attractive. Central banks—not retail speculators—are leading gold purchases to de-risk reserves. The West’s seizure of Russian assets highlighted the vulnerability of holding reserves in dollars. Consequently, many non-G7 nations are turning to gold and other assets beyond Western control. Could gold hit $4,000? If real rates stay negative, inflation persists and geopolitical tensions deepen, it is plausible. Gold is rallying on structural shifts in global finance. Corrections are likely, and volatility is inherent, but the underlying bid from institutional buyers remains solid.
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David Belle
Founder and Trader at Fink Money
We are at the top for gold. There have been myriad reasons why gold has rallied in recent months but it almost always comes down to geopolitics. People buy gold when scared politically and, more recently, China has been a big buyer due to US trade disruption. The PBoC started buying in November in line with Trump's victory, effectively hedging the past five months. But now that we seem to be turning a corner in the trade issues, and the China standoff is starting to dissipate, there is more reason for the PBoC to rotate back to buying USD-denominated bonds to earn yield from their USD holdings from US trade. Gold doesn't provide this yield. A trade deal being struck should send gold tumbling pretty hard.
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Harry Mills
Director at Oku Markets
Gold's rally to an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in April was a classic safe-haven demand play against the backdrop of geopolitical tension and Trump's trade war. Given progress seems to be being made on the trade front, I would expect a natural pullback in the price, but uncertainty remains high and global growth is projected to remain subdued. I wouldn't discount a further bull run in gold, and why not to $4,000?
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Faisal Sheikh
Managing Director at Monmouth Capital
We've had gold in client portfolios since 2019. With gains approaching 100%, gold now represents a lot more of some portfolios than originally intended. It’s reasonable to consider banking some profits after such a powerful run up in price. But it remains an invaluable and unique hedge against political and economic uncertainty. The idea that a handful of trade deals signal a return to normal is naive, in my view. President Trump has already shown willingness to rip up not just deals signed in his first term, but even those struck in the chaotic past few months. Liberation Day has therefore ushered in a new era of instability. Gold will retain appeal and its place in our portfolios for its resilience in times of market stress and diversification benefits.
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Scott Gallacher
Director at Rowley Turton
Given Trump’s tariffs and market-spooking statements, it’s no surprise investors rushed to the supposed safety of gold. But with a deal now struck with China and Trump’s many U-turns on tariffs, gold may start to lose its lustre. Investors should be cautious — buying at a potential peak risks sharp losses if the fear premium unwinds. As always, diversification across asset classes remains the best defence against uncertainty.
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Rob Mansfield
Independent Financial Advisor at Rootes Wealth Management
Gold is a fascinating asset because people believe it is a store of value but it's largely a self-fulfilling prophecy. It doesn't yield anything and it costs money to store. The only return you get is from supply and demand. Trying to second guess where the price goes feels like a lottery. There's a lot of noise at the moment because it has gone up so much. Momentum is fantastic, until it runs out.
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Gabriel McKeown
Political & Economics Writer at Sad Rabbit - Substack Newsletter
As tariff fears persist despite the US-China 90 day pause, these geopolitical anxieties have seen investors remaining loyal to this age-old refuge. Gold's allure is undeniable as a safe haven, rocketing past the symbolic $3,000 mark a couple of months ago. Expectations of central bank monetary easing over 2025 is propelling gold on a relentless upward trajectory with seemingly ample room for further gains. This, combined with a world rife with international turmoil and tariff proliferation, could be the spark that pushes gold prices towards the $4,000 threshold. Yet, despite the enduring bullish outlook, the rapid climb in gold prices could lead to significant volatility. With a series of unprecedented highs, the gold market risks overheating and may face bouts of profit-taking, so investors should brace for short-term fluctuations as gold reaches new heights. In an era marked by uncertainty, cautious investors are driving the precious metal to unprecedented levels.
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Tony Redondo
Founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange
Gold’s remarkable rally peaked at a record $3,500.05 in late April. It’s up $700 since January, driven by inflation, geopolitical tensions, and the US-China trade wars. Yesterday, gold dropped by nearly 1% on the 90-day tariff pause that cut tariffs by 115%, easing safe-haven demand. The World Gold Council notes that profit-taking and easing trade tensions might trigger a pullback, with $3,500 as a key level for potential liquidation, but $4,000 is still possible by mid-2026 if tensions persist. Any inflationary spike would support the price of gold, but given its hefty rise of late, profit-taking looms. Goldbugs may overplay the “safe haven” narrative, but their core argument holds weight in this volatile climate. Still, gold’s not immune to corrections: its recent run shows speculative froth, so caution is warranted.