Copy article

Is now a good entry point in the bond market? And why/why not?

Journalist: Imogen Tew, Freelance

ended 21. November 2023

Hi all

I'm writing a news story on whether now is (or isn't) a good entry point into the bond market for investors, and I'm after some thoughts as to why it may be (or not be) please.

What are the opportunities? What are the risks?

It will be a short-ish piece so the pithier the better, please.

Thanks so much

Imogen

2 responses from the Newspage community

Copy all

Copy

It all depends on your investment outlook. Over the long term, bonds are a great diversifier against equity without a doubt. If you expect the recession that was forecasted earlier in the year to materialise, it will pay rich dividends (pun intended) to hold bonds because, remember that debt tend to outperform equity in a recession. However, in the more likely scenario of the current interest rates having peaked in 2023, gilts look increasingly attractive for investors, with the capital gains tax exemption making them even more appealing for higher-rate taxpayers.
Copy

Short answer is yes. Government Bonds have not been trading this attractively for over 15 years. Inflation is coming down and bond yields are giving you a guaranteed return (if held to maturity)over and above the expected inflation rate . Furthermore, if things go completely pearshaped in the global economy, and recession and deflation bite hard then who knows -interest rates could be back towards zero, and bond prices will soar. Even if this doesn't happen you are getting paid handsomely to wait and find out. The fat yields cushion the downside risks and provide upside opportunities if goverments need to start cutting again.