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Gold to rise eightfold? Metal could go on 'significant bull run', experts claim

ended 11. August 2025

GOLD could go on a “significant bull run” and even mirror the rally of 2000 to 2011 that saw it rise eightfold, experts have claimed.

Gold prices have continued their upward march despite substantial swings in interest in the metal.

Over the past three months, the yellow metal has consolidated in a narrow range, with open interest dropping to sub-450,000 contracts — an oversold level by historical standards. 

Some market watchers say the recent price moves are forming a bullish pattern, which could mean gold’s quiet spell is coming to an end.

Speculation is mounting over whether gold could rally and challenge the $4,000 mark by year-end.

Anita Wright, Chartered Financial Planner at Ribble Wealth Management, said gold could rise eightfold - mirroring the 2000-2011 rally.

She said: "Gold’s current behaviour points strongly towards a classic consolidation phase before a significant bull run, rather than the end of a cycle. Over the past five months, despite volatile swings in equities, the metal has held steady in a narrow range and refused to break down — a sign of underlying strength. 

"When the S&P 500 fell in the first four months of 2025, gold surged. When equities bounced back, gold simply went sideways, retaining the higher ground it had gained. That kind of price resilience after a rally is often a tell-tale precursor to a breakout. 

"Currently, the drivers are less about headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) and more about systemic stress, loss of trust in the financial system, and a ‘confidence recession'. Monetary instability and credit deterioration — not just high inflation — have historically fuelled gold rallies. 

“If past bull markets are any guide, the move from the 2015 low of around $1,050 could eventually mirror the 2000–2011 rally, which saw gold rise eightfold.”

Kundan Bhaduri, Entrepreneur at London-based The Kushman Group, said “gold will continue to be an excellent buy over the next 12 months”.

He continued: "Goldman Sachs is projecting gold to be at $3,700 by December, while JP Morgan is eyeing $4,000 by 2026. These predictions appear almost conservative when measured against the 397 tonnes of fresh institutional money that poured into gold ETFs (exchange-traded fund) during the first half of 2025, marking the strongest inflows since the pandemic panic in 2020. 

"Meanwhile, the Fed is contemplating rate cuts while inflation persists above target, and the Dollar index retreats from 104 to 101. The Chinese central bank has just made its 20th consecutive month of gold purchases, while Indian gold imports have surged 42% year on year. 

“Gold at $4,000 is not a prediction but a simple arithmetic in a world where currencies are competing to depreciate and geopolitical uncertainties with Israel and Ukraine are increasing every day.”

However Scott Gallacher, Director at Leicester-based Rowley Turton, warned against investing in gold.

He said: "Gold has enjoyed a strong run, and with Trump’s latest tariffs set to hit US consumers and non-US manufacturers, that momentum may well continue. Geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions, and potential rate cuts could all add fuel to the rally. 

“However, gold might glitter, but unlike land, property, debt or equities, it doesn’t grow or produce an income. If you had to live off it, you’d be slicing off a sliver each day — and ending up with less. 

“That’s why any move towards $4,000 should be seen as speculation rather than investment. For most investors, gold should be a small part of a diversified portfolio, not the main event.”

4 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Anita Wright
Chartered Financial Planner at Ribble Wealth Management
Gold’s current behaviour points strongly towards a classic consolidation phase before a significant bull run, rather than the end of a cycle. Over the past five months, despite volatile swings in equities, the metal has held steady in a narrow range and refused to break down — a sign of underlying strength. When the S&P 500 fell in the first four months of 2025, gold surged; when equities bounced back, gold simply went sideways, retaining the higher ground it had gained. That kind of price resilience after a rally is often a tell-tale precursor to a breakout. Currently, the drivers are less about headline CPI and more about systemic stress, loss of trust in the financial system, and a “confidence recession.” Monetary instability and credit deterioration — not just high inflation — have historically fuelled gold rallies. If past bull markets are any guide, the move from the 2015 low of around $1,050 could eventually mirror the 2000–2011 rally, which saw gold rise eightfold.
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Editor
Tony Redondo
Founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange
Gold appears poised for a bull run, not a false breakout, with prices at up 40% in 2025 to date and bullish forecasts by the likes of JP Morgan ($3,675 by Q4 2025), Goldman Sachs ($3,700) by year-end, and more optimistic outlooks project $3,800 or higher, with some market watchers eyeing $4,000+ amid a potential monetary reset. The key propellers include the likely Fed interest rate cuts, a weaker US Dollar, an inflation rebound, central bank buying, especially from China and Russia, geopolitical risks (tariffs and conflicts), and supply constraints. The drop in gold futures open interest (OI) to around 445,000 contracts is moderately significant as a bullish signal for the long-term trend, but it's not a standalone confirmation. Historically, sub-450,000 levels have been considered oversold, often preceding rallies as they indicate a washout of speculative positions during consolidation phases.
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Editor
Scott Gallacher
Director at Rowley Turton
Gold has enjoyed a strong run, and with Trump’s latest tariffs set to hit US consumers and non-US manufacturers, that momentum may well continue. Geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions, and potential rate cuts could all add fuel to the rally.

However, gold might glitter, but unlike land, property, debt or equities, it doesn’t grow or produce an income. If you had to live off it, you’d be slicing off a sliver each day — and ending up with less. That’s why any move towards $4,000 should be seen as speculation rather than investment. For most investors, gold should be a small part of a diversified portfolio, not the main event.
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Kundan Bhaduri
Entrepreneur, Investor and Landlord at The Kushman Group
Goldman Sachs is projecting Gold to be at $3,700 by Dec 25, while JP Morgan is eyeing $4,000 by 2026. These predictions appear almost conservative when measured against the 397 tonnes of fresh institutional money that poured into gold ETFs during the first half of 2025, marking the strongest inflows since the pandemic panic in 2020.

Meanwhile, the Fed is contemplating rate cuts while inflation persists above target, and the dollar index retreats from 104 to 101. The Chinese central bank has just made its twentieth consecutive month of gold purchases, while Indian gold imports have surged 42% year on year. Gold at $4,000 is not a prediction but a simple arithmetic in a world where currencies are competing to depreciate and geopolitical uncertainties with Israel and Ukraine are increasing every day. Gold will continue to be an excellent buy over the next 12 months in my opinion.