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Inflation: what will happen to house prices and mortgages in 6 months 1 year and 5 years' time

Journalist: Samantha Downes, Currently at the I (business editing some Sundays (freelance) and Mortgage Solutions

ended 19. May 2022

We are looking for predictions on what will happen with rates and house prices. Will young people find it easier to get on the housing ladder in 5 years or even harder.

7 responses from the Newspage community

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"I do not envisage it becoming any easier for youngsters to get on the housing ladder. Prices continue to rise, interest rates continue to increase and inflation continues to erode the money they have available for deposits."
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If I could predict the financial markets, I would be writing this from a hammock on my private island. No one can predict the financial markets. That said, without a massive increase in wages, its hard to see how the housing market is suddenly going to open it's arms to first time buyers. There are some strong forces against to contend with before that can happen, interest rates, housing demand, increasing and aging population, low wages and with the demise of Help to Buy in 2023 it's not going to get any easier for young people.
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"First time buyers are the important bottom rung of the housing ladder. Without them, next time buyers are often going to have difficulties moving, slowing supply but so far there's been no let up in demand from first time properties to very grand homes. With average first time buyer house prices being 7 - 10 times average salaries, and interest rates rising, this is only going to cause more pressure. In five years time, it's likely to be similar - unless house prices free-fall or salaries massively increase, both of which scenarios quite unlikely. With inflation going up at the highest rate in 40 years, it is going to cause a real squeeze on household incomes. Interest rates are likely to continue to rise from these all-time lows that existing borrowers have made the most of and lenders are going to be looking more and more at long term affordability. Five years time doesn't look particularly favourable for a typical first time buyer."
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The received wisdom is that recent inflation is bad for house prices. Indeed interest rates have already started to rise, accompanied by ever more apocalyptic warnings from the Bank of England. Rising interest rates will constrain mortgage affordability and make potential buyers wary of taking on too much debt - this will put the dampeners on the housing market, the argument goes. But in the medium term - if wages (and rent) keep pace with inflation - we could well find that house prices continue their upwards trajectory.
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Rates and house prices are heading up at an alarming rate, but I'm not sure the property market has got much juice left and it's likely we'll see a period of relative calm for a while with little house price growth and reasonably stable interest rates. The increase in house prices has been maintained by people relocating with the surge in remote working, now that location can be determined by where you actually want to live, rather than where you have to live for work. It opens up opportunities for many, but that pool of buyers is only so deep and we have to be getting to the end of it at some point. With fewer buyers then we should see house price growth slow. As for interest rates, we're seeing rapid rises and a very dynamic rate market at the moment, but speaking to lenders this has little to do with their cost of funds and lots to do with service levels; they are trying to price themselves out of the market for a beat to catch up with the tidal wave of applications they are receiving. Once the number of applications reduces then we should also see less rate changes, at least until the Bank of England moves the base rate again."
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"On the face of it, things don't look great for first-time buyers trying to get on the housing ladder. Rising house prices and an increasing cost of living are just two factors making it harder than ever. However, I'm hopeful that the mortgage market will continue to innovate to support younger borrowers. These clients are crying out for some innovative mortgage product development. We've seen it in other areas, so let's hope lenders take up the challenge of helping. After all, theses are potentially long-term clients that lenders should want to help."
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"I think we will likely see house price growth slow or even stop in the next 1-2 years if the base rate goes up further. Although I think a large fall in house prices is unlikely, inflation-fuelled wage growth could make it easier for budget-savvy borrowers to get on the housing ladder."